3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/30/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Sean Murphy To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The Atlanta Braves come in with a juicy 5.11 implied run total and can exceed that in a hurry tonight.
The Braves have the best lineup in the MLB and present power at nearly every spot. This puts opposing pitchers in a tough spot, and it prevents them from being able to pitch around certain hitters. This gives the Braves' bats a chance to see good pitches, and we want to capitalize on that.
Tonight, they will be taking on JP Sears, who is seriously struggling versus right-handed hitters this season. To this point in the year, Sears has allowed a .329 wOBA, .500 SLG, 4.49 xFIP, 2.47 HR/9, 58.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.1% hard-contact rate versus righties. Those are some tough numbers to be sporting against a Braves lineup that could realistically roll with seven righties tonight.
We'll turn to Sean Murphy, who comes in with a 183 wRC+, .449 wOBA, .289 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 45.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Murphy's StatCast page is awesome as he's sitting in the top 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate, per BaseballSavant.
As usual, I'll also be adding Murphy To Record an RBI (+125).
Lucas Giolito Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)
When it comes to a pitcher prop, under 6.5 strikeouts for Lucas Giolito is the spot I'm looking at tonight.
Giolito is a good pitcher, but he's lacking a bit of upside this season on the hill. He comes in with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 11.9% swinging-strike rate, and 27.6% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). These are no doubt good numbers, but they're not great. He's also been limited with his pitch count, being held to 93 pitches or fewer in each of his last four starts. Through 11 starts this season, Giolito has been under this 6.5 mark in seven outings.
The matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is simply an OK spot. They come in with a 23.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 14th in the league. This isn't an overwhelmingly favorable matchup for high strikeouts, and Giolito hasn't really shown that upside this season. Under 6.5 strikeouts is the way to look tonight.
Mookie Betts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
With a slate-high 5.69 implied run total, the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to get plenty of runners on base.
This is a rather straightforward spot for the Dodgers, and that should point us directly to Mookie Betts, who is one of the best hitters in the league. He will be taking on Jake Irvin, who made his MLB debut earlier this season and only has 22.0 innings pitched. We have a small sample size, but it's all we have to work with.
Irvin comes in with a .328 wOBA, .321 BABIP, 5.79 xFIP, 19.6% strikeout rate, and 13.0% walk rate versus right-handed hitters. There's nothing to suggest from his stats in the MLB or from the minor leagues that Irvin is a dominant pitcher on the mound.
Betts is a perennial MVP candidate and comes in with a 126 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .224 ISO, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.2% hard-contact rate versus righty pitchers. Betts is elite, and backing him to pick up two bases as the leadoff hitter is one of my favorite bets of the night.
