MLB Betting Guide for Monday 6/5/23: Forecasting Regression for Pitchers in Tough Parks
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.0 (-104)
We're playing extra baseball on Monday between these two after Friday's washout, and it might be the same side I had then -- a sneaky total.
Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan might be why this number is a bit suppressed, but I'll admit I'm a bit concerned. Though the ERA (2.07) is where he wants it, the 3.73 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) tells a different story about McClanahan's year. Plus, his flyball rate (38.6%) and hard-hit rate allowed (34.1%) are both significantly higher than last year's All-Star campaign.
That profile more similarly matches Brayan Bello (3.76 SIERA) on the other side. In fact, Bello's expected ERA (xERA) is 5.10, so his hefty rate of groundballs (59.7%) might dismiss how much he truly leaves to chance when facing a lethal Rays' order.
In their respective splits today, Tampa Bay and Boston are top-eight offenses by wRC+. These are two bottom-eight bullpens by xFIP. This is also the second-best hitter's park in baseball. I don't understand a total this low when diving into these starting hurlers' peripherals.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Reds ML (-132)
Reds -1.5 (+146)
I don't need to know much about a lefty to play them against Milwaukee.
The Brewers are dead last in wRC+ (74) and strikeout rate (29.1%) facing southpaws, and it appears Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott might be a pretty sporty one entering his MLB debut. Abbott's 3.58 xFIP with Triple-A Louisville is nice, and his gigantic 34.8% strikeout rate is even better given the matchup.
On the other side, perhaps the Reds will be the first to crack Julio Teheran since he returned to the big leagues. It's definitely coming; Teheran's 0.82 ERA is fibbing, per a gigantic 5.82 SIERA. He's only amassed an 11.1% strikeout rate, and my dude hasn't given up a homer despite a 52.8% flyball rate. Great American Ball Park can fix that.
The runline might be a bit greedy, but when the Reds' bullpen (4.40 xFIP) has also been a step ahead of the Brew Crew's (4.51), I'll ladder the pair for a larger potential payout.
St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers
Cardinals ML (+112)
If FanDuel Sportsbook's splits on the spread are any indication, Texas should be a popular pick today at -132. After all, they scored 28 runs in two days against the Mariners, they've got a 120 wRC+ versus righties this year, and Adam Wainwright's Baseball Savant page is littered in blue, indicating he's a fifth-percentile pitcher in many categories.
I just don't buy the Rangers' hot stretch lasting long. Texas' active roster has a career 102 wRC+ against righties versus the mark they have now. They weren't expected to be this special. Plus, Wainwright's velocity isn't that poor compared to back-to-back campaigns with a sub-4.20 SIERA.
The Cardinals can also get after Martin Perez on the other side. St. Louis has a 115 wRC+ against lefties. Perez's struggles to find whiffs have hit a two-year low (16.7% strikeout rate), and he's ceded 1.48 HR/9 this year compared to a stellar mark last season (0.50).
Most of all, Wainwright's struggles should result in a pretty tight leash where St. Louis' key advantage could bloom. Their bullpen (3.89 xFIP) has been significantly better than Texas' (4.46 xFIP).
