3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/13/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+420)
When it comes to players with power upside, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is always near the top of the list.
Right from the jump, the +420 odds for Vladdy tonight are awesome. This is often a hitter we see around +300 or +320 for a home run, so I'm jumping at the chance to take him at a longer number. There's some nice hitting weather in Baltimore tonight, making this a great spot to target.
The Orioles will have Dean Kremer on the mound, a pitcher who has struggled versus righty hitters this season. To this point in the year, Kremer has allowed a .451 SLG, 4.36 xFIP, 1.45 HR/9, 39.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.2% hard-contact rate to righties. This should set things up nicely for several hitters on the Toronto Blue Jays, with Vladdy leading the way.
This year, Guerrero comes in with a 121 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .187 ISO, 36.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. All nine of his home runs have come via right-handed pitchers this season, making this the split to attack. Of course, I'm also adding Guerrero To Record an RBI (+110),
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
With a great matchup, over 4.5 strikeouts for Tanner Bibee is the spot I'm looking.
Bibee has been an exciting development for the Cleveland Guardians this season and can continue that tonight versus the San Diego Padres. While the Padres have some power in their lineup, they also have a ton of swings and misses.
With a 23.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the Padres are holding down the eighth-worst mark in the league. The lack of discipline at the plate makes them a rather favorable lineup to attack, and Bibee should be able to jump on that tonight.
This season, Bibee has a 23.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% swinging-strike rate, which has allowed him to go over this 4.5 mark in four of his eight starts. In the four starts he went over 4.5 strikeouts, he was able to pump his strikeout rate up to 26.1% or higher in all of them, including two outings at 34.8% and 42.9%.
Long story short, Bibee has a nice ceiling to reach for, and this matchup should help him show that off.
Freddie Freeman To Record 2+ Hits (+170)
If Lance Lynn is on the mound, we simply take hitting props against him.
That's where we are in the 2023 MLB season, and it's very straightforward when we have this opportunity every week. Lynn is having a rough go at things, specifically when it comes to dealing with left-handed hitters. Lynn is allowing a .467 wOBA, .702 SLG, 4.76 xFIP, 3.48 HR/9, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 42.7% hard-contact rate to lefties.
Those are among the worst numbers on the slate, and with Freddie Freeman on the other side, we know exactly where we need to look. Freeman comes in with a 154 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .174 ISO, .390 BABIP, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
I prefer Freeman for 2+ hits at +170 tonight since I want to shoot for that plus money upside. Just for the sake of comparison, Freeman To Record 2+ Total Bases is -120. The props are closely correlated, and while 2+ Total Bases is easier to achieve, I'm going for the +170 tonight.
