MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 6/15/23: The Nats' Ace Could Avenge Last Night's Bad Break
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Under 8.0 (-102)
If you'll give me a modest price on this under with two of the top pitchers in all of baseball, I'll take it.
The sensational Shohei Ohtani will be on the bump for the Angels on Thursday. He's amassed a 3.35 expected ERA (xERA) with a gigantic 33.3% strikeout rate. He's actually been quite unlucky to get punished with a 19.3% HR/FB ratio this season -- a mark that's well above the league average (11.6%).
The Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who has unquestionably lept to the top of Texas' rotation this year. Eovaldi's 2.95 xERA even eclipses the mark of Ohtani, and he's added a healthy amount of punchouts (24.9% rate) himself.
Undoubtedly, Eovaldi will have the easier matchup, but the reason this bet carries risk? Both of these clubs' active rosters have a wRC+ of at least 111.
There have been at least nine runs in each of Texas' last six games, so the public will enjoy an over wager here. I'll trust the aces.
Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
Nationals +1.5 (-132)
We should have a phenomenal, even pitching matchup in Houston today, leading to some value on the Nationals' spread here.
Cristian Javier hasn't been quite as good as his 3.13 ERA would suggest. He's got a 4.29 xERA, and the Nats' low-whiff lineup could give him fits considering a bulk of the value he provides comes from a 24.3% strikeout rate. Javier's .324 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is otherwise pretty pedestrian.
We get Washington's best starter with MacKenzie Gore today, too. Gore's 4.32 xERA is right in line with Javier's while also holding a significantly lower 3.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Houston's active roster also has a 108 wRC+ against lefties without Yordan Alvarez compared to 113 overall, so we get a bump there, too.
Despite Washington getting a run with this spread, the Astros are still getting 78% of bets and 87% of the total handle today on FanDuel Sportsbook. They've set this as an even mark that the public has obliterated in Houston's favor, and I just don't know if that's appropriate. Manager Dave Martinez is certainly motivated to take one from the 'Stros.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
White Sox ML (+120)
There's no way the White Sox come into Dodger Stadium and win this series, right?
Well, Dylan Cease is likely their best man to make it happen, and he'll battle Los Angeles tonight. With four quality starts in his last six outings, Cease has rebounded from a poor start to post a 4.30 SIERA with his usual high strikeout rate (25.0%). In some ways, he's actually taken a step forward by allowing fewer flyballs (37.3% rate) than a year ago.
The Dodgers will send Michael Grove to the slab to face him, and while Grove's 8.28 ERA is mostly a fib, he's still a step behind with a 4.40 SIERA here. Notably, Grove doesn't generate as many punchouts (20.2% rate), and he's given up 1.44 HR/9 despite a pretty normal 12.9% HR/FB ratio. It's a tad unlucky, but he's getting tagged.
Like in Houston, FanDuel Sportsbook is telling us the bulk of the runline action is on the Dodgers tonight, which should also mean the moneyline is getting blitzed. I'll fade that activity with the better pitcher.
