MLB Betting Guide for Friday 6/16/23: Looking Beyond the ERAs in Boston
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox ML (-122)
To commence another weekend series between the Yankees and the Red Sox, the ERAs of today's starters are lying a bit.
Domingo German's 3.49 ERA has been a bit fortunate, per a 4.29 expected ERA (xERA). German's 40.4% flyball rate and 38.9% hard-hit rate allowed are both a bit concerning, too.
You would expect Boston to be an underdog looking at Tanner Houck's 5.23 ERA, but his 3.86 xERA is actually significantly better. Houck's 27.6% flyball rate is also significantly better in a supreme environment for homers, which helps hide his 39.6% hard-hit rate allowed that's closer to German's.
Given you'd favor Houck's peripherals a bit, the Red Sox are an easy bet when turning to the sticks. Their active roster's 104 wRC+ against righties squash New York's.
This is a favorable number with both advantages.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Over 9.5 (-108)
This is a tougher spot than perception for Patrick Sandoval.
The Angels lefty has just a 16.9% strikeout rate, so he's always prone to the baseball gods delivering an unfortunate outing through a high BABIP. Personally, his style leans right into the strength of the opposing Royals today. Kansas City's isolated power (ISO) against southpaws (.155) is pretty solid, but they've struggled with a 23.6% strikeout rate in the split.
Of course, we're not too worried about the Halos on the other side for an over. They'll face Brady Singer, who has struggled to a 6.58 ERA and 6.00 xERA on the other side. Singer's 20.3% strikeout rate isn't overwhelming, and he's in the 1st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed (55.6%) entering a date with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.
Surprisingly, K.C. is just a +125 underdog to win tonight. If they're set to compete with the Angels, it doesn't appear to be on the basis of a Singer gem with how his season is rolling.
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres
Under 8.0 (-120)
A pair of studs will duel in one of baseball's best pitcher's parks so this total with an "8" on the front of it feels like a steal.
Shane McClanahan may be having a better season than he might deserve, but it's still a really good one. McClanahan's 2.18 ERA is quite low compared to a 3.65 xERA, but that mark isn't shabby, and his 27.8% strikeout rate and .381 expected slugging percentage (xSLG%) are both phenomenal.
On the other side, Yu Darvish has probably deserved better for the Padres, per a 3.55 xERA. His 26.2% strikeout rate is also right there, which is why San Diego sits in a pick 'em with the best team in baseball.
Notably, the Rays' hot start against righties has cooled to "just" a .732 OPS in June. That's still 14th in baseball, but they've dipped a bit from the team that was an avoid with unders. The Padres (.964 OPS versus lefties in June) have actually fit that bill better.
I'll add Padres ML (-108) to this with a surging offense and a closer-than-expected pitching matchup, but it's still hard to forecast McClanahan to get shelled.
