MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 6/20/23: Will Dylan Cease's Resurgence Continue?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Mariners ML (+102)
With the Yankees' offense still struggling down Aaron Judge, the Mariners should have the edge on both sides of the field tonight.
Seattle's active roster has a pedestrian 100 wRC+ against righties, but New York's is just 92 without Judge (fourth-worst in MLB). Both offenses should struggle to score today against Gerrit Cole and George Kirby, but Seattle might also have the edge with that matchup.
Cole's 2.75 ERA is hiding a more normal 3.84 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). New York's ace might even be a bit fortunate to have complied that mark when his elevated fly-ball rate (39.7%) has been punished with just a 9.5% HR/FB ratio, one that is below the league average (11.6%).
Kirby has been better, per a 3.65 SIERA. Notably, Kirby's 1.9% walk rate fits right into this battle with a Yankees active roster that has MLB's second-lowest walk rate (7.0%). I'm not expecting many ducks on the pond for New York.
Seattle is a great package wrapped into a plus-money price.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
White Sox ML (+116)
The White Sox are a team I've been on quite a bit. They're one of baseball's most profitable teams despite the 31-43 record, and they're getting a curiously short number here.
Maybe oddsmakers are finally expecting the Texas Rangers to begin to cool off. Texas' lineup has outperformed expectations to start the year, and they've got the ninth-worst bullpen in baseball by xFIP (4.41), but they keep winning. Nathan Eovaldi is a poster child for the resurgence, but regression is coming for him, too.
Eovaldi's 2.59 ERA looks pretty fortunate when you factor in a 3.48 SIERA -- which is still good. However, Eovaldi is allowing a 42.5% hard-hit rate, which would have been in the bottom 10% of qualified starters in 2022. He's not exactly cruising at all points.
Chicago will counter with Dylan Cease, who is certainly an ascending stock. He has a 3.48 xFIP and 34.8% strikeout rate in June as he continues to rebound from the slow start, including posting 10 punchouts in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers last week.
Given absurd public support for Texas at this number, it's intriguing to look at the Pale Hose tonight with their improving ace.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Under 8.5 (-105)
The 2023 "Freeway Series" gets underway in Anaheim tonight, and I like a pitcher's duel in this one.
Of course, that's not exactly a stretch with Clayton Kershaw toeing the slab for the visitors. Kershaw is putting together another All-Star bid with a 3.27 SIERA and 29.3% strikeout rate this year, and he's posted three straight quality starts in June.
This total -- more likely -- hinges on Reid Detmers of the Angels, and I'm a fan of what looms ahead for the lefty. Detmers' 27.7% strikeout rate is pretty dang dominant for a guy we don't collectively put in the same swing-and-miss tier as Kershaw, and Detmers' 4.48 ERA is a bit unlucky when he's got a SIERA (3.98) below 4.00.
The danger in this number is obvious with these star-studded offenses, but the splits are correct for an under. Facing a lefty is the Dodgers' worse split of the two despite the otherwise-stellar 121 wRC+ in June, and the Angels have tanked to an 88 wRC+ against southpaws this month.
As a result of Detmers' peripherals and the Halos' fleeting offense, the under is the side I'll be on.
