MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/22/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Corbin Carroll To Record 2+ Hits (+170)
The Arizona Diamondbacks top today's slate with a 5.14 implied run total, making them a great offense to target.
They are on the road to take on the Washington Nationals, who will have Jake Irvin on the mound. The rookie, Irvin, isn't having the best start to his career and is struggling versus lefties. Irvin is allowing a .392 wOBA, .500 SLG, 6.41 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, and 43.5% fly-ball rate. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting against one of the best offenses in the league, but it presents a ton of value today.
This is the split to target him, and it leads us directly to Corbin Carroll. I prefer going to Carroll for 2+ Hits at +170 compared to his odds for 2+ Total Bases at -125. There are obviously situations where Carroll records just one double and would hit the total base prop but not the hit prop, but the differential in odds is something I want to embrace due to the value.
Carroll is crushing righties this season with a 175 wRC+, .435 wOBA, .346 ISO, .336 BABIP, 40.8% fly-ball rate, and 33.1% hard-contact rate. These are elite numbers for the future NL Rookie of the Year, and he will continue to show that off given the favorable matchup.
Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)
The Philadelphia Phillies got rained out last night, but I'm running it right back with the same prop. The odds have moved from +104 to -106, which is rather minor overall.
Here's what I said yesterday about this prop.
Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Atlanta Braves are pretty good.
By saying pretty good, I mean they have one of the best offenses in the league and can plate multiple runs before you can blink. This often puts pitchers in a tough matchup and can be forced out of the game early after giving up a few runs.
The Braves come in with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. Not to mention the fact they have a .198 ISO (1st), 111 wRC+ (3rd), and 36.1% hard-contact rate (3rd) versus right-handed pitchers. They are the class of MLB and not a team that gets shut down.
This leads us to under 6.5 strikeouts for Aaron Nola. There's no doubt Nola is a great pitcher, but we've seen his strikeout rate drop to 24.4% this season compared to being at least 29.0% in each of the prior three years. If his strikeouts are just a touch lower, and he is facing an elite lineup, it all points to the under on his strikeout prop tonight.
