MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 6/22/23: Sifting Through the Sample of Seattle's Starter
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Nationals ML (+130)
In what could be a wild one in the nation's capital, I'll sleep easier getting this much juice with the Nationals.
Tommy Henry will toe the slab against them today, and Henry's 4.66 ERA appears to be an advantage in today's pitching matchup, but it's not. He has a 5.39 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) behind it with a hefty rate of fly balls (42.9%) and not many strikeouts (15.1% rate). Henry has ceded 1.61 HR/9 overall.
You'd still prefer the Diamondbacks' lefty to Jake Irvin, but the price might not merit that large of a gap. Irvin's 5.75 SIERA is in the same ballpark, and he's also amassed a lower rate of fly balls (39.1%) and a higher rate of punchouts (16.1%).
Arizona has had a .802 OPS against righties since May 1st. The Nationals have a respectable .750 against lefties during that time. I see a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair that's closer to a pick 'em than this current betting line.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Under 7.0 (-104)
Regardless of how good you think this pitching matchup is, it's better.
That means Mitch Keller must be taking the mound for the Pirates as their lone top-shelf starter. Keller's breakout 2023 campaign has amassed a phenomenal 3.43 SIERA, a 28.3% strikeout rate, and is allowing a fly ball just 32.4% of the time. The opposing Marlins have just a .717 OPS against righties since May 1st, so this won't be his toughest test of the year by any means.
Miami will counter with a surprise stud of their own. Braxton Garrett has come from nowhere to post a 3.27 SIERA and 26.6% strikeout rate in his own right. Garrett has been especially tough on lefties with a 2.41 xFIP in the split, taking key power pieces for Pittsburgh like Jack Suwinski and Tucupita Marcano down several notches.
This low total might be a shock from name value on both sides, but they are well worth it against largely impotent offenses in South Beach.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Mariners ML (+104)
Three of Seattle's starting pitchers might have an All-Star claim, but two have already failed to stop the shorthanded Yankees. Maybe an emerging fourth can do the trick.
Don't let Bryan Woo's 7.30 ERA fool you. Through a limited sample of 12.1 innings, he's posted a 2.31 SIERA with a Spencer Strider-like 37.1% strikeout rate. In this small sample, he's largely been victimized by a 21.4% HR/FB ratio that is significantly higher than the league average (11.4%).
I certainly prefer Woo's outlook -- as an underdog -- to that of New York's Domingo German. German was rocked from his last start in Boston, and his 4.25 SIERA, 23.0% strikeout rate, and 39.7% fly-ball rate are all fairly plain.
This could be a sweat just because both teams have had such woes hitting righties. Seattle's active roster has a 96 wRC+ against them, and New York's has a paltry mark of 88. Still, that favors the M's with an interesting pitcher on the bump, so this is a good spot to fade the noticeable betting activity on America's Team.
