MLB Betting Guide for Friday 6/23/23: The Reds Can Keep Their Streak Alive
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Reds ML (+130)
You're going to have to decipher this one for me.
The Reds have won 11 games in a row, they're at home, and they're a +130 underdog. That's not the surprising part. It's that a majority of FanDuel Sportsbook bettors like the Braves here. Nonbelievers sit all around us.
I love this spot for Cincinnati. Luke Weaver will take the mound, and Weaver's 6.47 ERA isn't a fair representation. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is 4.52, which is a massive improvement. He's also been torched by a 17.1% HR/FB ration that is well above the league average (11.4%). He'll face his usual uphill climb at this ballpark, but so will the visiting AJ Smith-Shawver.
Atlanta's young righty has been far more fortunate. His 2.05 ERA is actually hiding a 4.45 SIERA that nearly matches Weaver's. He's also had a lower 10.5% HR/FB ratio, tempting fate when allowing a 51.2% flyball rate overall.
I didn't think I'd get to bet Cincinnati until August the way they've been piling up W's, but the public is selling here. I'll keep buying.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Mariners ML (-112)
Assuming this one plays through stormy weather, that should benefit the Mariners with a pitching edge today.
As my colleague Tom Vecchio pointed out when liking his strikeout prop, Logan Gilbert's downturn has been surprising, but don't expect it to stick forever. His velocity is still normal, and he was lit up by the Angels, Padres, and Yankees with Aaron Judge. The Orioles' 104 wRC+ against righties is fine but lags behind the relevant sample for those clubs.
Baltimore will send Kyle Gibson to the bump to face him, and I'd be sooner worried about him. Gibson's 3.94 ERA is hiding a 4.70 SIERA, and he's put forth his usual low strikeout rate (17.7%) this season. Gibson has been fortunate to only cede a 7.6% HR/FB ratio, too.
The O's are getting all the love on FanDuel Sportsbook from bettors, but I prefer the ace on Seattle's side with their offense coming off a double-digit effort on Thursday.
Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies
Over 11.5 (-110)
The summer solstice was earlier this week, and a wild summer at Coors Field could officially be here.
The Rockies have arguably the worst pitching staff in baseball. Kyle Freeland might actually be the rotation's best bet, but even he's posted an ugly 5.43 SIERA, 14.9% strikeout rate, and 40.9% hard-hit rate allowed. Colorado's bullpen also has the league's fourth-worst xFIP (4.99) in June.
Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the Angels should demolish this pitching staff all series. They've got at least .762 OPS in both handedness splits. The question is if Colorado can keep pace, and I think they can tonight against Patrick Sandoval.
Los Angeles' southpaw has had a quietly poor season. He's compiled a 4.79 SIERA, 17.3% strikeout rate, and 9.0% walk rate himself. That'll lead to plenty of balls in play and extra baserunners at Coors Field -- obviously a recipe for disaster.
Oh, the Halos' bullpen actually has a higher xFIP in June (5.44) than the Rockies', too. This could be truly the first time that baseball's funhouse has puts up a laughably crooked score in 2023.
