MLB Betting Guide for Monday 6/26/23: Don't Count the Tigers Out in Texas
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves
Over 8.5 (-102)
Though it's Spencer Strider Day for the Braves, that hasn't stopped over wagers recently; they've hit in five of his last eight starts.
Strider does have a path to dominate the Twins behind his 39.0% strikeout rate when they've got the league's highest punchout rate against righties (27.1%), but Minnesota also has a 102 wRC+ in the split, showing competence when Strider isn't perfect himself. His 48.9% flyball rate and 39.0% hard-hit rate allowed are concerning.
Sonny Gray might not live up to his expectations in this pitcher's duel, either. Gray has tanked to just a 4.51 xFIP and 16.7% strikeout rate in June facing an Atlanta offense that -- obviously -- crushes both splits. Their .801 OPS against righties specifically leads all of baseball.
At one of baseball's better parks for hitters, I actually believe we'll see more offense at Truist Park than the marquee would suggest.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Tigers +1.5 (-115)
Over 9.0 (-106)
My favorite bet for this handicap is Tigers TT Over 3.5 (-115) on FanDuel Sportsbook, but if the eligible books in your state don't offer that, the Tigers' spread or the game's over substitute well as similar wagers to this.
At the end of the day, it comes down to not liking what I see from Andrew Heaney. Heaney's 3.98 ERA suggests improvement in 2023, but his 4.31 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is actually as high as it's been since 2015, and he's still coughing up 1.49 HR/9 with a 38.5% hard-hit rate higher than you like.
I also don't love the Rangers as much as perception against Matt Boyd, but surely one of baseball's top offenses will do some damage. Boyd's 5.37 ERA is actually pretty unlucky, per a 4.22 SIERA and 35.6% hard-hit rate allowed -- both actually better than Heaney's marks.
Detroit also seems to have found a decent lineup against southpaws. Their 92 wRC+ this month against lefties is actually the 14th-best in baseball with each of their top-four projected hitters holding a personal OPS above .700 in the split for the season.
I think the Tigers compete tonight with a team I still believe is overvalued at the moment.
