MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 7/5/23: Don't Sleep on the Nationals' Ace Tonight
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Tigers -1.5 (-110)
The Oakland Athletics were a bit underrated offensively to start the year. That died off in June -- especially against lefties.
Since June 1st, Oakland has had a dismal 49 wRC+ and .512 OPS against southpaws. To no surprise, those are both the worst marks in the league. Eduardo Rodriguez returns from his injury today for the Tigers, and even a fraction of the E-Rod we saw before the injury should be able to handle the A's.
Rodriguez has an excellent 3.10 expected ERA (xERA) with a dominant 25.5% strikeout rate. On the flip side, Oakland's Ken Waldichuk has an ugly 5.47 xERA and an underwhelming 19.8% strikeout rate as he's set to face a Detroit offense that's been much better against lefties in this same time (95 wRC+).
Of course, the Athletics' bullpen (4.87 xFIP since June 1st) has been much worse than Detroit's (3.96) in this same span. Across the board, it's looking like the Stripes rebound convincingly from a disappointing 1-0 loss in extras on Tuesday.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Nationals ML (+104)
The Reds are one of baseball's hottest clubs, but they're at a pitching deficit today, which could lead to a surprise defeat.
Josiah Gray's 3.30 ERA is one of Washington's bright spots this season -- even if a 4.22 xERA behind it tells a less inspiring tale. Gray's 21.0% strikeout rate is also nearly three percentage points lower than last year, but he's corrected his biggest weakness. Gray has only ceded 1.13 HR/9 with a manageable 35.4% hard-hit rate allowed. Despite more whiffs, he was constantly giving up tanks last year (2.30 HR/9 in 2022).
The Reds will counter with Graham Ashcraft, whose strong start to 2023 has petered out. He's rocking a hideous 5.62 xERA with a massive 43.4% hard-hit rate allowed. The Nats' plucky offense won't amaze in any split, but their low 18.4% strikeout rate shows plate discipline if Ashcraft provides the mistakes.
Believe it or not, the Redlegs' bullpen (5.46 xFIP) has also been worse than Washington's (5.18) since the start of June. This gap on the mound could easily help the Nats end Cincy's chances of a series sweep as a contrarian underdog.
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Over 10.0 (-104)
Could one of baseball's best hitter's parks continue to send Jon Gray's ERA where it belongs?
The Rangers are 7-3 in Gray's starts since May 1st against all odds. His 3.21 ERA has a 4.22 xERA behind it, and his 21.1% strikeout rate is the lowest for a full season of his entire career. Ceding at least five earned runs in two of his past three, those peripherals are starting to show up in the box score.
On the other side, Brayan Bello is another surprising Red Sox hurler that's kept them more competitive than initially expected this season. Bello's 3.85 xERA and 21.8% strikeout rate actually beat out Gray entering this one, but he's also struggled with a gigantic 41.2% hard-hit rate allowed against a Texas team with a gigantic .809 OPS against righties since the start of June.
Despite two capable offenses, the ERAs here are turning most bettors toward the under at such a large number. These pitchers are absolutely gettable, so I'm expecting plenty of runs in Boston tonight.
