3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/5/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jake Fraley To Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.93 implied run total and have one of the most electric offenses in the league.

With power up and down the Reds' lineup, they are a great team to look at for some home run props. Add in some nice hitting weather and a pitcher worth attacking, and we end up with a great spot for some long balls tonight.

That pitcher would be Josiah Gray, who has a mixed bag of results versus left-handed hitters but is due for some major regression. Currently, Gray is allowing a 5.04 xFIP, 0.60 HR/9, 44.2% fly-ball rate, and 5.7% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. For context, the league averages are a 4.45 xFIP, 1.18 HR/9, 37.3% fly-ball rate, and 12.4% HR/FB ratio in this split.

This means Gray is allowing more fly-balls compared to the league average but fewer of them are actually going for home runs. That just doesn't add up and points to Gray being on the good side of variance to this point in the season. The pendulum is ready to swing back toward the league average.

We turn to Jake Fraley, who comes in with a 143 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .225 ISO, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. All 11 of his home runs this year have come in this split, making it the clear time to target him. As always, I'm also adding Fraley To Record an RBI (+140).

Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Let's look at over 4.5 strikeouts for Jose Berrios.

Berrios had a rocky start to the season, but he is rounding into form right now and coming off of two starts that could be his best of the season. On the year, Berrios has a 22.7% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate. That's relatively modest when it's all said and done, but he's reached a new level in his recent outings.

Over his last two starts, he's recorded a 29.6% and 34.8% strikeout rate, along with a 12.5% and 10.2% swinging-strike rate. That has allowed him to rack up eight strikeouts in each outing, putting him firmly over his 4.5 prop tonight.

He's in a groove right now and is set to take on the Chicago White Sox, who come in with a 23.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 11th-worst in the league.

Do I expect Berrios to carry a 29% strikeout rate in every start going forward? No. But he has seemingly gotten his command back and faces a lineup worth attacking, all while having a rather low 4.5 prop tonight.

Mookie Betts To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

A Mookie Betts prop at -110? I'm taking that every day.

It really can be that simple if we want it to be. An elite hitter with an easy prop at nearly even money? Sign me up! That's the straightforward way of looking at things, but let's add a little bit more context.

Mookie comes in with a 145 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .256 ISO, 17.6% strikeout rate, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's elite across the board and will have plenty of chances to show that off considering the Los Angeles Dodgers have a big 5.39 implied run total tonight.

If they are going to be plating a ton of runs, they are going to be getting runners on base early and often.

He will be taking on Osvaldo Bido from the Pittsburgh Pirates, who is a rookie with a total of 19.0 innings pitched in MLB this season. With a 20% strikeout rate, Bido doesn't pose too much of a threat to Mookie, and I'll take the All-Star hitter over a rookie any day of the week.