MLB

MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/6/23

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Jul 6th, 2023

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+300)

The Baltimore Orioles have a 4.43 implied run total tonight, which might not be high enough.

With a matchup against Luis Severino, the Orioles could pile up the runs early and often. Severino is having what could be his worst season in the MLB, and it offers tremendous offensive upside to opposing lineups.

To this point in the year, Severino is allowing a .395 wOBA, .554 SLG, 4.82 xFIP, 2.45 HR/9, 9.5% walk rate, and 39.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Whew. That is a rough set of numbers to look at, but it puts the Orioles in a truly excellent matchup for some power tonight.

Let's turn to Anthony Santander, who is crushing right-handed pitching this season. 11 of his 14 home runs have come in this split. On top of that, he has a 114 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .210 ISO, 52.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.6% hard-contact rate versus righties.

I love everything about this matchup and will also add Santander To Record an RBI (+115).

Jose Ramirez To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

At even money, I'm taking this Jose Ramirez player prop 10 times out of 10.

JRam continues to be one of the very best hitters in the MLB, and with great odds, this is too good to pass up. The Cleveland Guardians have a 5.22 implied run total tonight, which means we should see plenty of hitters on the basepaths. This is due in large part to Jordan Lyles being on the mound for the Kansas City Royals.

This season, Lyles comes in with a 5.50 xFIP, 2.27 HR/9, 17.2% strikeout rate, .360 wOBA, .523 SLG, and 48.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. The combination of not being a high-strikeout pitcher and a lot of fly balls is always a great profile to target.

As for Ramirez, he is rocking a 158 wRC+. /399 wOBA, .335 BABIP, .209 ISO, 8.8% strikeout rate, and 46.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. That's a dreamy hitting profile to have against a pitcher such as Lyles.