MLB Betting Guide for Friday 7/7/23: Do the Mets Keep Rolling?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox
Cardinals ML (-112)
Banking on two St. Louis victories in a row might be a harrowing proposition, but it's easy to love them because of the hitting splits in this one.
Cardinals lefty Jordan Montgomery and White Sox righty Dylan Cease are fairly similar pitchers. Montgomery has a 4.06 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and Cease's is 4.01. When looking at expected ERAs (xERA), Montgomery (4.02) holds a small lead over Cease (4.22), as well.
The offenses they'll face tonight aren't nearly as similar, though. Since June 1st, the White Sox have the eighth-worst OPS (.676) and third-highest strikeout rate (27.1%) against southpaws. Meanwhile, Cease will have to face a Cardinals attack that has a scorching .792 OPS against righties in this same period.
These odds are justifiably close given both of these solid pitchers can have some success, but it'll be a lot easier for Montgomery to navigate the Pale Hose if their recent dip against lefties continues.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 8.5 (-110)
Suddenly, the Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a fork in the road during this 2023 season.
Fresh off getting swept by the Mets, they'll now likely be without Corbin Carroll due to a shoulder injury for at least tonight's game. That won't help their offense that's already struggled against lefties (79 wRC+ since June 1st) as they're set to battle Pittsburgh's Rich Hill.
Say what you want about Hill, but he's had another serviceable season with a 4.53 SIERA, which should be good enough to hold back a depleted Snakes offense a bit. The under is a great look here because we can mostly guess Zac Gallen will have his way with the Buccos' offense.
Pittsburgh has an equally mediocre 84 wRC+ against righties since the beginning of June, and Gallen remains on the periphery of Cy Young contention with a 3.53 SIERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and an excellent 5.1% walk rate.
Betting an over in this spot is likely to target Hill, but this is Arizona's worse split of the two, and I've got zero interest in doing so when the D-Backs will also be down their best player.
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Padres ML (-124)
Kudos to the Mets for playing like their payroll recently, but I still don't trust Justin Verlander in this road start.
Verlander's 3.66 ERA doesn't tell the full story. He's got a 4.29 SIERA behind it with a massive 45.8% hard-hit rate allowed. That hard-hit rate allowed ranks in the 13th percentile in all of baseball, and if he's off his game, don't expect help from the bullpen. They've got the fourth-worst xFIP as a unit (4.64) this season.
Though not always consistent from start to start, Yu Darvish is pitching much better despite what a 4.84 ERA would suggest. His 38.2% hard-hit rate allowed is far more manageable, evidenced by a lower 3.86 SIERA overall.
Since the start of June, San Diego's offense has a 116 wRC+ against righties, which is also better than the Mets' mark of 107. At home, they're rightful favorites here despite the Mets' recent winning streak, which I don't factor into this handicap at all when the pitching matchups reset daily.
The public does, though, presenting some value here.
