FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 7/9/23
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process.
Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitchers
Jesus Luzardo ($10,300) is on the bump for a game agianst the Philadelphia Phillies, a game with a total of 7.0, which is 1.5 runs lower than any of the other nine main-slate games. The Phillies hold an active-roster strikeout rate of 25.2% (25th in the Majors) against left-handed pitching. Luzardo's 28.6% strikeout rate and 30.6% called-strike-plus-whiff (CSW%) rate bode well for punchouts in this matchup. That's why his strikeout prop of 7.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook paces the day. He stands out most among the $10,000 tier, and numberFire's model ranks the others as follows: Zach Eflin ($10,500), Joe Ryan ($10,200), and Lucas Giolito ($10,000).
On the other side of the game against Luzardo, Aaron Nola ($9,400) is up against the Miami Marlins. The win probability gets a bump down, yet Nola is projected for plenty of strikeout potential relative to the salary. His strikeout prop is 5.5 but with -156 odds on the over. He's a risk/reward option.
At a similar salary to Nola, Shane Bieber ($9,500) deserves a look in his spot against the Kansas City Royals. Bieber has a lower-than-expected strikeout rate (19.3%) based on his CSW% number (29.5%), which is more in line with a K-rate of 26.0%. The Royals, overall, have a 25.2% strikeout rate (28th in the Majors) as well as an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (29th).
Domingo German ($8,100) rates out well given the salary. German hosts the Chicago Cubs, a team with a 24.0% strikeout rate against righties (25th) and a 96 wRC+ (19th). German's strikeout prop sits at 5.5 with -124 odds on the over. German is another strikeout rate regression candidate with a strikeout rate of 23.5% but a CSW% of 30.1%, suggesting a K-rate closer to 27.0%.
Stacks
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox rate out as the team with the highest implied run total (5.21) of the main slate, a slate consisting of 20 teams. They're favored against JP Sears and the Oakland Athletics in a game with an over/under of 9.5. Sears allows an elevated number of fly balls (56.8%) with a tepid strikeout rate (23.2%). Boston's active roster owns a 112 wRC+ against lefties on the year and is in a plus hitting park against a bad bullpen, too. Sears' low strikeout prop (4.5) doesn't strike fear, either.
Robert Refsnyder ($2,700) can save us some salary cap at the lead-off spot, and the rest of the top guys are largely fittable in some form or fashion, too: Alex Verdugo ($3,400), Justin Turner ($3,400), Rafael Devers ($3,800), Adam Duvall ($3,000), Masataka Yoshida ($3,200). Duvall (+280) has some of the shortest odds to hit a home run on the main slate.
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals face the high-salaried Lucas Giolito ($10,000), who also has a solid 6.5 strikeout prop (but with -146 odds on the under). Giolito's strikeout rate (25.6%) could cause problems, but he also has a 4.23 xFIP and a 46.7% fly-ball rate.
The Cardinals' offense can overpower that matchup. Their active roster has a 114 wRC+ and a good 21.9% strikeout rate, numbers that improve a bit against right-handed pitching (117 and 21.3%, respectively).
They'll likely roll out three lefties in the top six -- Brendan Donovan ($2,900), Lars Nootbaar ($3,000), and Nolan Gorman ($3,100) -- with righties Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900), Nolan Arenado ($3,800), and Willson Contreras ($2,700) who have hit righties well. Goldschmidt has a .387 wOBA versus righties with Arenado at .358 and Contreras at .312 (but with a nice hard-hit rate of 38.8%).
Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians are another team with a high implied run total (5.04) but with some affordable bats at the top of the order. Amed Rosario ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,900), and Josh Bell ($2,800) hold a platoon advantage against lefty Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbrough has the lowest strikeout rate among main-slate starters (12.4%) through 113 batters faced.
Lead-off hitter Steven Kwan ($2,900) has a 114 wRC+ against lefties; Josh Naylor's ($3,400) is 106, so they're not off the table despite the platoon split.
WIth Cleveland's low strikeout rate and Yarbrough's early returns in the whiff department, there should be plenty of balls in play en route to one of the higher totals of the main slate.
