3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/25/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Christian Walker To Hit a Home Run (+450)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking to break a losing streak and have a great matchup to get that accomplished tonight.
Over a long season, a five-game losing streak is bound to happen at points for any team, and the Diamondbacks can snap out of it tonight against Steven Matz. This puts several of the D-backs' hitters in good matchups tonight, but we'll focus on Christian Walker.
The lefty-throwing Matz has struggled against righty hitters, allowing a .467 SLG, .357 wOBA, 1.14 HR/9, 34.7% hard-contact rate, and 31.1% fly-ball rate. I'd like to see the fly-ball rate a bit higher, but righties don't seem to be having too much of an issue with it against Matz.
For Walker, he comes in with a very solid 124 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .272 ISO, 51.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Arizona is expected to put up plenty of runs tonight, and Walker should be in the middle of that.
Given all of that, I'll also add Walker To Record an RBI (+125).
Nolan Jones To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
The Colorado Rockies racked up 10 runs last night, and they are in a great spot tonight for production.
Will we see another 10 runs tonight? I doubt it, but that doesn't mean we can't target some hitters from the Rockies for some player props. That is because the Washington Nationals will have Trevor Williams on the mound, a pitcher we love to see.
This is because Williams isn't good and gives us plenty of value to target from the other side. This season, Williams is allowing a .363 wOBA, .498 SLG, 5.64 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, and 39.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. We love to see numbers such as these because it's a path of little resistance for hitters.
We turn to Nolan Jones, who comes in with a 126 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .248 ISO, 35.6% fly-ball rate, and 49.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is a very simple and straightforward matchup for Jones, who has a great prop tonight.
Francisco Alvarez To Record an RBI (+150)
The Subway Series adds another chapter tonight with the New York Yankees hosting the New York Mets.
While both teams aren't where they want to be in the standings, we are focused on things from a prop perspective. Domingo German will be on the mound for the Yankees, a pitcher we can absolutely look to attack with some hitters from the Mets.
Despite throwing a perfect game earlier this season, German is not a strong pitcher. He comes in allowing a .435 SLG, .315 wOBA, 1.75 HR/9, and 36.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those aren't numbers you need to worry about on the mound and, frankly, should be excited to see.
Francisco Alvarez is an exciting rookie for the Mets and has been crushing right-handed pitchers this season. He's rocking with a 152 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .335 SLG, and 39.8% fly-ball rate in this split. That's some serious power for Alvarez and puts him in a spot to knock in a runner and pick up his RBI prop.
