MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/3/23: Can the A's Pull an Upset Over the Dodgers?

If you want a large inventory of options to bet, baseball has you covered.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Under 8.5 (+100)

Mitch Keller and Adrian Houser square off tonight in Milwaukee, and I've got my eyes on the under.

Keller has been a breakout performer in 2023, recording a 3.81 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 25.7% strikeout rate. While he's had a tough time lately, Keller should have enough in the tank to quiet a Milwaukee Brewers offense is just 24th in wOBA against righties (.302) with the 11th-highest strikeout rate in the split (23.5%).

Houser struggles to miss bats (17.4% strikeout rate) but does a nice job keeping the ball out of the air (33.0% fly-ball rate). Prior to a bad outing last time out at the Atlanta Braves -- not many pitchers succeed at Atlanta these days -- Houser had been on a four-start run of solid pitching, posting a 24.5% strikeout rate in that time, with two of those starts coming at home against the Braves and at the Cincinnati Reds.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' offense is 23rd in wOBA against righties (.304) and carries the fifth-highest strikeout rate over the past two weeks (27.2%). Houser should be OK here.

numberFire's model projects there to be 8.33 runs scored in this one (4.26-4.07 in favor of Milwaukee). It gives the under a 52.1% chance to win out.

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers

Oakland Moneyline (+240)

So, yeah, I know this is a tough sell, but hear me out.

While the Los Angeles Dodgers are better than the Oakland Athletics at pretty much everything baseball-related, I think the A's have a better chance of winning tonight than this +240 moneyline implies.

JP Sears is throwing today for the Athletics, and he's not bad. Sears owns a 22.3% strikeout rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate for the season. His 56.7% fly-ball rate is troubling, particularly against this LA offense, but Sears is capable of keeping his head above water in this spot.

Julio Urias is on the bump for the Dodgers. Urias has been off this year, pitching to a 4.15 SIERA and a career-low 10.2% swinging-strike rate. He's been particularly poor in his five starts since coming off the IL, struggling to a 5.13 expected FIP (xFIP) in that span. His strikeout rate is just 13.2% across his past two outings, although those were difficult matchups versus the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles.

Oakland is obviously a much softer matchup than those two offenses, but the A's aren't as bad against southpaws, sitting 22nd in fly-ball rate in the split (35.0%) and 24th in ISO (.140). That's not great, but it's better than what they produce versus righties.

numberFire's model gives the A's a 34.3% chance to win. At this +240 moneyline, Oakland's implied win odds are just 29.4%. It won't feel good to back the Athletics against LA, but an Oakland moneyline bet checks a few boxes.