3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/9/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Michael Harris II To Hit a Home Run (+560)
The Atlanta Braves have the league's best offense and immense power to put up runs quickly.
With a 5.84 implied run total, the Braves are expected to plate some runs tonight, which is nothing new for them. They are going up against Quinn Priester, who is a rookie pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates and has a very small sample size this season.
In this small sample size, Priester allows a .667 SLG, .458 wOBA, 5.81 xFIP, 1.80 HR/9, and 35.3% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Stats such as these give opposing offenses a ton of scoring potential, and the Braves should be able to put that on full display tonight.
We turn to Michael Harris II, who has been locked in at the plate with four multi-hit games over his last seven games. He's gone six games without a homer, but over this stretch of games, he's posted exit velocities over 100 mph six different times, per BaseballSavant.
Harris is blasting the ball right now but hasn't managed to put one over the fence. On the season, Harris has a 112 wRC+, .3341 wOBA, .181 ISO, and 35.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
This matchup should allow him to finally put one over the fence tonight. As usual, I'll look to add Harris To Record an RBI (+140), too.
Adam Duvall To Record an RBI (+100)
A slate-high 6.12 implied run total is a good indication the Boston Red Sox are going to score tonight.
The Sox are home to take on Jordan Lyles, making this a very favorable matchup for their offense. Lyles is struggling this year versus righties to the tune of a .455 SLG, 5.34 xFIP, 1.49 HR/9, and 51.0% fly-ball rate. Considering Fenway Park is a great hitting environment and there is a bit of wind blowing out to right field, that 51.0% flyball rate from Lyles is looking super dangerous tonight.
That leads us to Adam Duvall, who has a massive 54.9% fly-ball rate, .303 ISO, 130 wRC+, and .366 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers this season. Talk about a perfect match of flyball rates for a hitter and a pitcher.
This puts Duvall in a prime spot to knock in a run and grab an RBI.
Yu Darvish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Yu Darvish has a very enticing matchup tonight and has been peaking in recent starts.
Darvish comes in with a 25.4% strikeout rate, 10.9% swinging-strike rate, and 29.2% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. Those are solid numbers overall, but Darvish is reaching a new level in recent outings.
Since the All-Star break, Darvish has five starts under his belt and has posted a 28.0%, 37.5%, and 39.0% strikeout rate in three of those outs. That has led him to be over this 6.5 mark in those outings -- a level he can certainly reach tonight.
The matchup against the Seattle Mariners is among the easiest in the league since they are carrying a 26.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst in the league. This should allow Darvish to continue this hot trend and hit the over on his prop tonight.
