MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 4/15/15
If you’ve never played daily fantasy baseball before, it’s time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you’re able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every day.
And while there are many platforms to play daily fantasy baseball on, one of our favorites is from our partners over at DraftKings.com. Never played over there before? It’s time for that to change. Sign up now and use our optimal lineups here at numberFire.com to crush the competition. You won’t regret it.
As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
To get a general idea of who we're picking in tonight's slate, check out the video below, courtesy of Periscope. And be sure to follow us on there, @numberFire!
Top Pitchers
Brandon Morrow – Tonight's pitching slate isn't all that desirable, meaning cheaper options could be the way to go. Morrow's one of those guys, coming in as one of the cheapest pitchers on both FanDuel and DraftKings. As I've been targeting all week, the Arizona Diamondbacks' lineup is playing in Petco Park, which is a significant downgrade from their usual Chase Field. The lineup itself isn't all that strong, and that's been reflected in low over/under totals all week from Vegas. We've got another 6.5 run total game in San Diego tonight, meaning Morrow -- who has a career 3.91 FIP -- could have an opportunity to go deep into the game, similar to Odrisamer Despaigne last night.
Lance Lynn – If you'd rather spend (though, to be fair, you're not really spending with these options compared to other nights), you could look Lance Lynn's way. The Cardinals' righty will face a righty-heavy Brewers lineup tonight in St. Louis, a below-average park for hitters. Lynn has a solid 8.80 strikeouts per nine rate over his career, and over his time in the bigs, he's allowed a .280 wOBA to right-handed batters. As I said, the Brewers will throw right-handed bats at you, as the first four in their lineup are all strong, righty bats. Lynn should be fine in a game that has a fairly low over/under (7) but, again, it may not be necessary to pay up for him if you like some of the pricier bats out there.
Best High-Priced Hitters
Nelson Cruz - FanDuel jacked up Cruz's price by $500 after yet another home run last night, but he's still reasonably price on DraftKings tonight, chilling at $4,200. I mentioned his nice splits yesterday when he faces left-handed pitching, and he'll get that again tonight against Los Angeles' Brett Anderson. Our algorithm isn't necessarily as high on Cruz as I would be tonight, but the machines do see him as one of the better outfield options on the slate. I may not play him on FanDuel, but he's a little tough to avoid on DraftKings at his price tag.
Buster Posey - I don't pay up at catcher very often, but given the fact that you're spending less money on pitchers tonight, you can get away with it. If you do, Buster Posey's your man, as long as he's in San Francisco's lineup. The Giants will get Tyler Matzek, a lefty who had a 3.92 xFIP last year for the Rockies, giving up a .372 wOBA to right-handed bats. Against lefties, that dropped all the way to .199. Yes, playing in San Francisco is a big park shift from Coors, but considering the platoon split (Posey mashes lefties, too) and the way this slate is shaping up, Posey looks to be a smart option tonight across the industry. Especially on DraftKings, where he's actually cheaper than on FanDuel.
Most Cost-Effective Hitters
Marlon Byrd - Travis Wood will be on the mound for the Cubs tonight, which is good news for Cincinnati right-handed bats. Wood, who actually came out of the Reds' system, has a career 4.15 FIP and 33.1% ground-ball rate. That low rate has translated into giving up about one home run per nine innings. That's great for Byrd, who's really cheap across daily sites given his slow start. He has just a .238 BABIP so far this year, meaning his .167 average should probably be a little higher (albeit he's not hitting many line drives). Byrd, too, has hit fifth in the Reds' lineup when they face lefty pitching, which makes sense considering his .344 career wOBA in the split (.327 last year with a .215 ISO). At a near minimum cost, you could do a lot worse.
Chris Carter - When the Astros face left-handed pitching, like they will tonight against Drew Pomeranz, Chris Carter will generally bat in the clean-up spot. That hasn't meant much for the Astros this year, but if you're looking to take a stab at a cheap home run, he could be your guy. Carter has seen a career .220 ISO against lefties, which is actually lower than what he's seen against righties, but his wOBA is higher, giving him a potentially safer floor. (It's still not all that safe though given the way the Astros are hitting as a whole.) Vegas, too, sees Houston getting over the four-run mark (depending on where you're looking), which means there could be opportunity for Carter tonight. Our numbers give him the fourth-best chance to hit one deep.
