5 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitters for 4/7/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel Price: $3,600
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
David Peralta likely won't even be the most popular outfielder in his game, as everyone and their mom will be stacking the Cubs today, especially their left-handers, such as Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber. When you add in the fact that Peralta's opponent, John Lackey, posted a respectable 2.77 ERA last season, Peralta should go overlooked.
Why You Should Use Him:
While Lackey's ERA looks impressive on the surface, his SIERA of 3.90 from last season indicates that he is not anywhere near a 2.77 ERA from a skills perspective. Lackey's SIERA points to a below average pitcher, but his numbers against lefties are even worse.
| Name | SLG (L) | SLG (R) | wOBA (L) | wOBA (R) | K% (L) | K% (R) | BB% (L) | BB% (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Lackey | .409 | .349 | .326 | .269 | 13.60% | 24.60% | 8.70% | 3.50% |
Insert David Peralta, who along with being right-handed, absolutely crushes right-handed pitching.
| Name | SLG (L) | SLG (R) | wOBA (L) | wOBA (R) | ISO (L) | ISO (R) | Hard% (L) | Hard% (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | .375 | .552 | .299 | .397 | .125 | .228 | 32.2% | 36.0% |
Last season, 16 of Peralta's 17 homers came against right-handers, and he'll look for his first long ball of 2016 tonight against Lackey.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
FanDuel Price: $3,200
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Manny Machado is going to be the absolute chalk at third base, followed by Kris Bryant, and probably Maikel Franco. Adrian Beltre has fallen off of the radar of most daily fantasy players due to his struggles over the past year and will likely continue to go overlooked tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
Beltre's opponent on the mound today, Hector Santiago, posted a 4.50 SIERA last season and really struggled against right-handed batters, against whom he posted a 5.05 xFIP.
Santiago also allowed a .441 slugging percentage, .323 wOBA, and most encouragingly, a 55.8 percent fly ball rate to right-handers last season. As a result, 23 of the 26 bombs he allowed came against right-handers.
While Beltre had a down year by his standards, he still abused left-handers, as evidenced by his splits below.
| Name | SLG (L) | SLG (R) | wOBA (L) | wOBA (R) | ISO (L) | ISO (R) | Hard% (L) | Hard% (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Beltre | 0.547 | 0.406 | 0.393 | 0.307 | 0.237 | 0.130 | 33.7% | 33.7% |
Machado is the cash game play at third base, but Beltre is an interesting tournament option tonight.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Mark Teixeira shouldn't go overlooked after yesterday's performance, but there's a good chance he does with Anthony Rizzo and Chris Davis likely to be the chalk at first base. Especially on a day with little to pay up for at pitcher, people will have extra money to spend, which will likely result in them paying the extra salary to "upgrade" to one of the aforementioned sluggers.
Why You Should Use Him:
Teixeira draws another matchup against a righty who allows a lot of fly balls? Copy paste writeup from yesterday's article. Next pick!
In all seriousness, it is that easy with Teixeira today. Again, he draws a favorable matchup, as Mike Fiers allowed a 42.1 percent fly ball rate last season.
In case you missed yesterday's article, here's Teixeira's stats against righties again. Last season, 25 of his 31 home runs came against righties. He elevated his wOBA from .342 to .399 against righties, but where the differences really become noticeable are his power numbers. He posted a .413 slugging percentage against lefties and an absurd .609 slugging percentage against righties. His ISO against righties jumps off the page at .339, as opposed to .190 against lefties. He also had a 38.6 percent hard hit rate and 45.7 percent fly ball rate against righties.
Teixeira is an extreme pull hitter, regardless of which side of the plate he hits from, and he posted a 55.2 percent pull rate last season batting from the left side of the plate. This offers an explanation for his extreme power numbers, as he benefits from a shallow Yankee Stadium right field. His power numbers rose to ridiculous proportions at home against righties, where he posted a .689 slugging percentage and .385 ISO.
He piled up 33 FanDuel points yesterday and has an opportunity for a repeat performance tonight. Target him liberally in tournaments.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Price: $2,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Baltimore will likely be a popular stack today, but don't expect too many to target Jonathan Schoop hitting out of the eight hole.
Why You Should Use Him:
While Phil Hughes struggled against just about everybody last season, his splits against right-handers were especially bad. Righties posted a .547 slugging percentage, .369 wOBA, and 44.5 percent fly ball rate against Hughes, which explains the 15 long balls he allowed to righties.
Manny Machado is the obvious beneficiary in this matchup, but Schoop is an intriguing under-the-radar option.
Schoop experienced some reverse-splits last season, actually hitting right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching. His slugging percentage rose from .313 to .563 against righties, his ISO from .081 to .262, and his wOBA from .251 to .379. His strikeout rate was down against righties too, from 28.8 percent to 22.6 percent.
Schoop's hard hit rate rose from just 25.7 percent against lefties to a very impressive 40.3 percent against right-handers, while his fly ball rate rose from 31.4 percent to 40.5 percent. Both indicators of an improved power stroke were backed up by the fact that Schoop hit 13 of his 15 jacks against righties.
Even more impressive are Schoop's splits against righties at home. Schoop posted a slugging percentage of .723 and an ISO of .372 when he faced a right-handed pitcher at Camden Yards last season! Camden Yards boasted the third-highest park factor last year, as well as the second-highest home run park factor. Phil Hughes is in big trouble today, and there's a good chance that Schoop will be involved. He makes for a very intriguing tournament dart throw at this price.
Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals
FanDuel Price: $2,200
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Michael Taylor is a part-time player and went 0-for-4 in his first start for Washington, so I wouldn't expect him to be heavily owned today. There also isn't much need to pay all the way down without any true pitching studs on today's slate.
Why You Should Use Him:
We're going back to the well with Taylor. He's too cheap not to consider while batting atop the Nationals' order.
Taylor posted impressive numbers last season in limited time, putting up 14 home runs and 16 stolen bases with a 31.6 percent hard hit rate.
He is never a safe option, due to his career strikeout rate of 31.6 percent, but he will find himself hitting leadoff for a potent Nationals lineup in a terrific matchup against Adam Conley.
Vegas has Washington projected for the fifth-most runs on today's slate, and there is a good chance the Nationals get to Conley early and often, in which case it will be hard for Taylor not to reach value at near minimum price. It's rare you get a player with this much upside for this cheap.
