5 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays for 4/13/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians
FanDuel Price: $10,200
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Carlos Carrasco struggled in his first start of the season, putting up just 18 FanDuel points in five innings. With Stephen Strasburg priced right above him and in a better matchup, it's unlikely Carrasco will be a popular option.
Why You Should Use Him:
Carrasco has an excellent opportunity to bounce back from his disappointing debut tonight against the Rays, who were significantly worse against right-handed pitching last season. Tampa Bay ranked 5th in wOBA against left-handed starters but just 23rd against righties in 2015. They also posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate against righties, while walking the ninth-least frequently.
That is great news for Carrasco, whose main source of value comes from his ability to miss bats. He built on his 2014 K/9 of 9.40 and put up a 10.58 K/9 last season, fueled by the MLB's fourth-highest strikeout rate of 29.6 percent and the fifth-highest swinging strike rate of 14.0 percent.
Also, this game is being played at the spacious Tropicana Field, which ranked 21st in park factor over the past three seasons.
Carrasco has performed excellently in this matchup in the past, putting up a sparkling 1.82 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 24.2 innings over the past two seasons against Tampa Bay. Strasburg is the safer play, but Carrasco is an excellent option in tournaments.
Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
FanDuel Price: $4,600
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Jose Bautista has played well lately, but he draws a matchup with Michael Pineda, while several other outfielders have far more exploitable matchups.
Namely, Bryce Harper and Carlos Gonzalez will be extremely popular options among expensive outfielders. Colby Rasmus has been swinging a hot bat lately and draws another matchup against a righty. He'll likely continue to be a popular mid-ranged option.
Why You Should Use Him:
Bautista has shown no signs of slowing down in his age-35 season, averaging 13.9 FanDuel points, with one double dong game already.
He has a chance to build on his numbers tonight against Pineda, who posted a tidy SIERA of 3.09 last season but who has shown susceptibility to powerful right-handers like Bautista. Pineda allowed righties to post a slightly higher slugging percentage and wOBA against him last year, but what really stood out was his fly ball rate. Against lefties, Pineda allowed just a 21.7 percent fly ball rate, but that number jumped up to 37.3 percent against righties.
It was more of the same for Pineda in his first start, as he was roughed up by an Astros' lineup that boasts several dangerous righties. When the dust had settled, he had given up six runs and three home runs, all to right-handers.
Bautista has experienced reverse-splits throughout his career, hitting righties better than lefties, and 2015 was no different. He already launched two bombs off of right-handed pitching this season, and last year, 35 of his 40 long balls came against righties. That should come as no surprise, considering he posted an absurd 49.9 percent fly ball rate and 35.7 percent hard hit rate against righties.
His slugging percentage, ISO, and wOBA were all improved against righties as well, especially at home. Bautista posted a .583 slugging percentage, .328 ISO, and .412 wOBA at Rogers Centre last year.
This matchup isn't safe enough to invest nearly $5,000 of your cash-game salary into, as Pineda can be flat out un-hittable at times. He is, however, worth a look in tournaments, where his combination of upside and ownership are unmatched.
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Price: $4,000
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
First base is absolutely loaded with appealing options today, especially at the top end. Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, and Chris Davis all will be popular options, leaving Brandon Belt slightly overlooked. He has a great matchup and plays at Coors, so he certainly won't go completely under the radar, but he will be lower owned than he should be, considering the spot he's in tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
Belt has been a key contributor to the Giants' hot start, getting on base at a .433 clip, while driving in four runs out of the four-hole and averaging 10.1 FanDuel points per game.
He will face off against Jordan Lyles tonight, who posted a 4.98 SIERA last year -- the highest on today's slate. Lyles struggled specifically with lefties, allowing them to post a higher slugging percentage, wOBA, walk rate, and fly ball rate than righties did against him. He has also predictably struggled while pitching at Coors.
This is all great news for Belt, who improved his slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, hard hit rate, fly ball rate, and walk rate against righties last season, while lowering his strikeout rate.
Belt will also benefit from Coors' number-one ranked park factor, just as he has in the past. Outside of his home ballpark, Belt has hit more homers in Coors than any other park, along with a career .330 batting average and .600 slugging percentage. Rizzo is probably the way to go in cash formats, but Belt is an interesting way to differentiate your lineups while saving some salary.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Price: $3,700
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Joey Votto is in the same position as Belt as far as ownership is concerned, but he isn't playing at Coors, so he is likely to fly even further under the radar.
Why You Should Use Him:
Votto hasn't gotten off to a great start, but he does have multi-hit performances in two of his past three games. Nothing among his peripherals to this point would suggest regression or a changed approach at the plate, so it's probably best to just exercise patience with Votto and bet on a statistical correction while he's still cheap.
John Lackey posted a respectable 3.90 SIERA last season but struggled to contain left-handed hitters. Lackey gave up a significantly higher slugging percentage, ISO, and wOBA against lefties, while also striking them out at a 13.6 percent clip, as opposed to a 24.6 percent mark against righties.
That bodes well for Votto, Cincinnati's best left-handed batter. Throughout his career, Votto has a .545 slugging percentage, .229 ISO, and .416 wOBA against righties, all of which are significantly higher than his marks against lefties. He also posted better numbers when it came to hard hit rate and fly ball rate during that time, posting a 38.5 percent hard hit rate and 34.3 fly ball rate against righties.
This game is also being played at Wrigley Field, which is home to the 12th-best park factor over the past three seasons. Votto has taken advantage of that in his career, with more home runs and RBI coming at Wrigley than any field other than his home stadium. He also has a .311 batting average and .584 career slugging percentage at Wrigley.
If you're playing multiple tournament lineups tonight, give Votto a look. He'll certainly be contrarian and offers considerable upside for his price.
Gerardo Parra, OF, Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Price: $3,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Similar to Bautista, Gerardo Parra will get lost among a chalky outfield position. People will be sure to stack the Rockies, but he likely won't be popular enough for his matchup.
Why You Should Use Him:
Parra has slowed down after a hot start to the season, but his splits against righties are too much to ignore in a home matchup with Jake Peavy tonight.
Peavy boasted a 4.33 SIERA last season and allowed left-handed batters to post a 53.3 percent fly ball rate against him last season, which is the highest any pitcher on today's slate allowed to batters of any handedness. That does not bode well for the right-hander who has a 6.11 ERA in his last three starts at Coors.
Parra's slugging percentage against lefties last season was just .362, but he was much better against righties, posting a .473 slugging percentage. He also raised his ISO from .124 to .170 and his wOBA from .290 to .345. He also struck out less often against righties, while elevating his hard hit rate from 22.5 percent to 31.2 percent against them.
Parra will be hitting in the middle of the lineup for Colorado and could be a big part of an offensive explosion against Peavy, who gave up 10 hits and 4 runs in just 5 innings of work in his first start of the season. Target him liberally in tournaments.
