MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 7/2/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
| Player | Position | Projected FP | Cost | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homer Bailey | SP | 23.23 | $25,000 | 0.93 |
| A.J. Griffin | SP | 20.3 | $22,200 | 0.91 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | LF | 15.71 | $7,200 | 2.18 |
| Chase Utley | 2B | 13.57 | $7,100 | 1.91 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | CF | 13.95 | $6,500 | 2.15 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 13.99 | $6,200 | 2.26 |
| Adrian Beltre | 3B | 13.15 | $5,700 | 2.31 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | SS | 13.12 | $5,500 | 2.39 |
| Nate McLouth | LF | 15.61 | $5,100 | 3.06 |
| Yadier Molina | C | 11.74 | $4,800 | 2.45 |
| Drew Stubbs | RF | 13.67 | 4500 | 3.04 |
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
David Price - I'm going to be honest (honesty's the best quality) - our optimized rosters are all over the map today. There isn't a single pitcher that resides in more than two of our five. So, when in doubt, it's the matchups I turn to first. First up: the Houston Astros, their major-league high 25.3 percent strikeout rate, and their second-lowest .294 OBP. Sure, David Price hasn't pitched since mid-May and only holds an average 20.6 percent strikeout rate himself. But in facing an offense this poor, regressing to his 22.3 percent career strikeout rate shouldn't be too tough.
Kris Medlen - Matchup we like number 2: the Miami Marlins. How could you not with their league-worst .289 OBP and also league-worst 1.6 percent homerun rate? The Marlins may not strike out that much with a below-average 18.7 percent K rate, but that's not Medlen's strength this year anyway. He simply doesn't walk guys and allows few hits on balls in play; Miami holds the second-worst walk rate and worst BABIP in the entire majors. Seems like a perfect matchup for Medlen to play up his strengths.
A.J. Griffin - And finally, we have the pitcher facing the Chicago Cubs. Noticing a trend here? All of these guys have an extremely high win probability tonight. Price and Medlen hold 0.52 projected wins and 0.22 projected losses or less, while Griffin is at a 0.48-0.29 split. Cleveland's Corey Kluber holds 0.46 projected wins, and no other starter is above 0.43 tonight. That makes these three exceptionally valuable. The Cubs' slugging is actually not half bad at a slightly above-average .405, but their fifth-worst .299 OBP and fifth-worst 6.7 percent walk rate means Griffin and his high balls in play ratio can thrive.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Shin-Soo Choo - It's seems like we've picked on Tim Lincecum every time he's pitched recently. With that 1.432 WHIP and sickeningly high 28 percent line drive rate allowed, however, he's clearly low-hanging fruit. Who better to take advantage of a .326 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) than a guy like Choo, who holds a .350 career BABIP himself and has hit 25 percent of his balls in play for line drives this season? The MLB average line drive rate, by the way, is all the way down at 21 percent.
Asdrubal Cabrera - Anybody else notice that he's the highest-priced batter we recommend in some formats, such as DraftKings and FanThrowdown? Despite only holding a .322 OBP during the regular season, that's no accident. Facing Royals starter Luis Mendoza's 1.401 WHIP, Cabrera holds 0.18 projected HR, 0.83 projected runs scored, and a .283 projected average tonight. Sure, he also holds 0.82 projected strikeouts, the byproduct of a 23.8 percent K rate this season, but Mendoza's own strikeout rate is six percent below the MLB average.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Nate McLouth - Pitcher alert: McLouth's OBP drops 40 points against lefties, and the White Sox start lefty John Danks tonight. The Orioles typically move McLouth down the order against lefties as well. But with that said, is hitting a spot or two behind Chris Davis really the worst thing for his RBI opportunities? I'm not too scared by Danks' 18.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.8 percent homerun rate either, meaning we could see a lot of runs from the Orioles offense tonight.
Drew Stubbs - Heh, the guy traded for Shin-Soo Choo. Funny how these things work sometimes. Facing Mendoza's high WHIP and 14.9 percent strikeout rate, though, I can't exactly say I'm surprised. Stubbs may only hold a .295 OBP, but that's because of an extremely high strikeout rate. When he actually gets the ball into play, he's dangerous with a .335 BABIP. Good thing, then, that Luis Mendoza allows 72 percent of opposing batters to put a ball in play (74 percent career).
