MLB

Francisco Lindor's Walk-Off Single Capped a Crazy Comeback Against the Nationals

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jul 27th, 2016
Cleveland experienced an unpredictable three-run ninth inning to steal a win from Washington.

Even in a 162-game season, every win counts.

And although the Cleveland Indians have the third-highest odds to reach the playoffs, per our algorithm, at 92.6%, probability wasn't on their side last night against the Washington Nationals.

Cleveland trailed 6-4 entering the bottom of the ninth, and according to FanGraphs, their chances to secure their 57th win sat at just 8.6%.

With Jonathan Papelbon and his not-so-great 3.77 SIERA on the hill, Jose Ramirez (101 wRC+ against righties) drew a leadoff walk, which improved Cleveland's odds to 17.5%.

Tyler Naquin, whose 176 wRC+ against righties would tie him for third-best among qualified hitters, slugged a double to score Ramirez, boosting Cleveland's chances to 43.5%.

Chris Gimenez and his -- don't look -- 39 wRC+ against righties plopped a bunt down the first-base line, which Ryan Zimmerman chucked into right field, allowing Naquin to score and placing Gimenez on second.


With the game tied, Cleveland owned an 80.6% chance to pull off the comeback, and Papelbon's intentional walk of Lonnie Chisenhall bumped things slightly to 81.1%.

Rajai Davis, a roughly average hitter against righties with a wRC+ of 103, popped another bunt down the third base line over the charging Anthony Rendon, loading the bases with no outs. The Indians were all but assured to cap off the comeback with a 93.6% chance to win.

Washington yanked Papelbon and opted for left-hander Oliver Perez to face Jason Kipnis, whose wRC+ drops from 139 against righties to 83 against lefties. Kipnis lined out to left field, but it was too shallow for Gimenez to tag up, dropping Cleveland's chances to 83.1%.

Francisco Lindor stepped in with a double-play able to quell the rally, but after a foul ball, he manage this.


After pulling out the comeback, the Indians sit fifth in our team power rankings, as we see them 1.06 runs per game better than an average opponent. Their 12.4% chance to win the World Series is third-best in baseball.