NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
If you are looking for an action-packed way to get your sports fix, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers that crash out of the race is a must, of course!
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. Our track preview breaks down this week's venue, and we also have The Heat Check Fantasy Podcast, where Jim Sannes breaks down his favorite plays for Sunday's slate.
It feels like ancient history at this point, but Chris Gabehart dialed in the #11 FedEx Camry again for Denny Hamlin last Thursday in Kansas, where Hamlin held off Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick for his series-best fifth win of 2020. After a much-needed break, the series heads back to the track this weekend in Loudon, NH. This flat, 1.0-mile track nicknamed "The Magic Mile" is always a unique test because of its combination of short-track pace and intermediate-track tire wear and passing. Only 301 laps, and therefore 301 miles, are on the docket for Sunday's race, so this will be a quick event in "The Granite State".
The starting lineup for Sunday's race was determined by a tiered random draw based on owner points, which put Aric Almirola on his third pole position of the season for the event. Pit stalls, however, were drawn off last Thursday’s finishing order in Kansas, which gives Denny Hamlin the premier first pit stall. Given this is an SMI-owned racetrack, and that is has been used historically here, the expectation is the PJ1 traction compound will be applied to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in hopes to aid passing in this race.
With that, let's preview the Foxwoods Resort Casinos 301 at New Hampshire.
Higher-Priced Drivers
Denny Hamlin ($13,400): Hamlin certainly has established himself as a championship contender once again this year, as mentioned with the most wins in the Cup Series this year at 5. That usually bodes well for the Chesterfield, VA native at New Hampshire, where he has won three times, most recently in 2017. Hamlin dominated the only race at NHMS last season, as even despite starting 23rd, he finished 2nd and led 113 laps in this short event. Hamlin will have not nearly the same trouble getting to the front the year, starting 2nd. He also has the best pit stall by way of his win in Kansas, which altogether makes Hamlin easily the betting favorite at +440 on FanDuel Sportsbook to win this event.
Martin Truex Jr. ($12,200): The teammate to Hamlin is Truex, and he may have the most to say about Hamlin taking the checkered flag on Sunday. Truex has the highest average finish at New Hampshire (4.50) of any driver the last four races here, and this race most similarly profiles of 2020 tracks to Martinsville, because of its flat corners, where Truex Jr. won back in May. Joe Gibbs Racing has led at least 125 laps in each of the last seven events in Loudon, and that alone should be enough to know that these two, as well as teammate Kyle Busch ($12,600), should all be high-priority targets when building tournament lineups for Sunday.
Mid-Priced Drivers
Christopher Bell ($9,000): The unofficial fifth Joe Gibbs Racing machine is with the #95 car and driver Christopher Bell, who got a one-week breather from this helper due to finally drawing better in qualifying. Michael McDowell's great run last week knocked him back to the drawing tier for 25th to 40th, and of course, with Bell's luck in 2020, he drew a dreadful 35th. It will be hard-earned, but Bell should still have success Sunday from that spot, earning plenty of pass differential points. It is worth noting, Bell led 186 of 200 laps in a dominant Xfinity Series win here last July as well.
Matt DiBenedetto ($8,700): DiBenedetto was in that unofficial fifth Gibbs car last year at NHMS, and he piloted it to a great 5th place run last July. Now with a Penske Racing alliance, it would be easy to write off the Grass Valley, CA product as no longer having the equipment at these flat tracks to contend. But, DiBenedetto is just an incredibly strong racer at shorter tracks, earning six top-10 finishes at tracks shorter than 1.5 miles over the last two years. DiBenedetto is in the playoff picture and having a nice year, so he got a fairly favorable draw in 19th position in terms of still having plenty of pass differential upside. Look for the bad luck to end on Sunday, which should find "Matty D" contending for yet another top-10 finish.
Lower-Priced Drivers
Matt Kenseth ($8,000): If there is a "Horse for the Course" in this lower tier, it is absolutely Matt Kenseth. Kenseth's run of six straight top-10 finishes at "The Magic Mile" was snapped in 2018 when he finished 15th, but that was still after climbing all the way from 31st on the starting grid. Kenseth is very comfortable at this track, and his #42 Chip Ganassi Racing team has had success before him here as well, where Kyle Larson finished 2nd in both races held in 2017. Kenseth starts 22nd, which still increases his floor to a manageable level. He will try for his third top-10 finish of 2020 on Sunday.
John Hunter Nemecheck ($6,200): There is very little data on the son of "Front Row Joe" at this track, so call this a gut feeling on the affordable rookie. Nemechek has six top-15 finishes already in his 2020 campaign, but has had brutal accident luck the past month or so. As a result, and dropping outside the top-24 in ownership points--this is a very fast machine that should start in the back most weeks until Nemechek's luck turns around. Nemechek crashed out of the Martinsville race this year, and last year's Xfinity Series race, but as an idea of the speed his #38 machine will have, teammate Michael McDowell finished 17th here one year ago. The difference, for fantasy, is Nemechek is starting 36th, whereas teammate McDowell has too low of a floor from 18th on the grid. If Nemechek can match his teammate's run from a year ago from that deep in the field, he will pay off his price tag in a large way.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
