NASCAR

Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

As our sample in 2021 expands, we get a better read on which teams have the sauce and which do not. Unfortunately, that actually makes things more difficult for this week in NASCAR DFS.

Through the first five races, Stewart-Haas Racing has been out to lunch. Although Kevin Harvick ($14,000 on FanDuel) has four finishes of sixth or better, he has not led since Daytona, and his best average running position is eighth. The rest of SHR has a combined zero top-10 finishes.

Normally, that would mean we could just push them down our list and circle back later on. That's tough in Atlanta.

Harvick has won two of the past three races here and has led at least 116 laps in six of the past seven. The last time he had an average running position worse than fourth was back in 2013 when now-defending champ Chase Elliott ($12,000) was 17 years old. Harvick tends to be the guy to beat here, and he is the current betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

But current form matters, and Harvick isn't on the same level now that he was then. Entering last year's race, he was the top driver in my model with a projected average running position a full 2.5 spots better than anybody else. This year, he ranks just sixth as the model puts much more weight in current form than track history.

So, do you buy into Harvick, or do you look elsewhere?

The key to answering that question lies in the data, which you can find below. It shows both a driver's current form and track history, things you can blend together to get a realistic expectation for this weekend.

As always, the numbers there are the driver's average running position rather than where they finished. A key example of why comes from the 2019 Atlanta race.

In that one, both Joey Logano ($11,300) and Ryan Blaney ($10,500) had fast cars. Both started outside the top 25, worked their way forward, and led at least 20 laps. They were contenders for the win. But they got trapped a lap down during green-flag pit stops and finished outside the top 20. Their average running positions of ninth and eighth, respectively, better represent their strength than where they finished.

The other data listed is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Harvick being listed at 5.5 means he is +550 to win.

Current
Form
Track
History
Driver FD
Salary
Win
Odds
Starting Phoenix Vegas Homestead Roval Texas
2
Texas
1
2020 2019 2018
Denny Hamlin $11,700 7 1 4 4 13 4 14 9 6 9 7
Martin Truex, Jr. $13,500 6 2 6 7 5 7 4 17 3 4 8
Joey Logano $11,300 8 3 2 11 14 5 8 7 12 9 8
Brad Keselowski $13,000 7 4 4 4 8 16 10 11 10 9 3
Chase Elliott $12,000 7 5 12 12 13 5 13 13 6 14 14
Kyle Larson $12,500 6 6 11 3 5 10 -- -- -- 6 8
Kevin Harvick $14,000 5.5 7 8 18 9 9 17 8 3 4 3
Christopher Bell $9,500 22 8 9 9 19 6 14 22 18 -- --
William Byron $10,000 18 9 11 6 4 15 12 18 36 18 23
Ryan Blaney $10,500 14 10 5 6 18 21 6 5 9 8 14
Kurt Busch $9,000 25 11 14 14 7 9 14 8 14 6 5
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. $6,500 100 12 12 15 16 23 19 24 14 17 14
Austin Dillon $8,000 50 13 21 16 11 14 10 14 18 24 15
Alex Bowman $8,500 28 14 17 11 10 17 8 13 12 17 18
Bubba Wallace $6,000 80 15 16 32 21 25 34 20 21 28 25
Aric Almirola $8,000 50 16 14 27 21 17 22 10 17 11 12
Chris Buescher $5,500 150 17 23 18 10 15 37 17 22 17 25
Michael McDowell $5,000 200 18 24 18 13 20 24 23 25 29 26
Kyle Busch $10,700 10 19 18 12 15 21 7 7 4 11 5
Matt DiBenedetto $6,800 66 20 14 11 20 27 9 11 13 25 31
Ross Chastain $5,500 150 21 20 22 18 30 -- -- -- 33 32
Erik Jones $6,500 125 22 17 17 26 21 15 9 17 13 16
Ryan Preece $4,500 250 23 25 19 25 18 22 28 25 20 --
Chase Briscoe $5,500 150 24 19 24 26 22 -- -- -- -- --
Daniel Suarez $5,000 250 25 24 22 21 19 27 29 31 12 10
Justin Haley $3,500 500 26 28 29 29 30 -- -- -- -- --
Cole Custer $7,000 100 27 19 25 14 12 16 24 22 -- --
Ryan Newman $6,000 125 28 27 20 12 23 21 18 20 14 23
Tyler Reddick $7,500 66 29 21 20 18 25 16 15 15 -- --
Corey LaJoie $4,000 500 30 24 28 31 27 24 23 27 30 --
B.J. McLeod $3,000 500 31 29 30 36 -- -- 37 40 33 --
Anthony Alfredo $4,000 500 32 36 23 28 30 -- -- -- -- --
Cody Ware $2,000 500 33 35 33 33 30 -- -- -- 35 --
James Davison $2,500 500 34 33 -- 36 28 -- -- -- -- --
Quin Houff $3,000 500 35 33 34 34 40 35 32 33 -- --
Joey Gase $2,000 500 36 -- 35 -- -- 35 37 37 -- --
Josh Bilicki $2,000 500 37 35 36 34 32 31 37 34 -- --
Timmy Hill $3,500 500 38 38 37 38 36 31 37 38 -- --
Austin Cindric $6,200 100 39 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --


The Harvick situation is definitely a tough one to dissect. The luxury is that you don't have to use Harvick to get access to great history at Atlanta. You can also get it via the guy with some of the best form on the circuit, Martin Truex Jr. ($13,500).

Truex won last week in Phoenix, which is a plus. But he also had a top-seven average running position in both 2021 races on 1.5-mile tracks. It was a fifth-place mark in Homestead, the best comp we've gotten thus far thanks to the heavy tire wear both there and in Atlanta. Truex has been elite in Atlanta with a top-four average running position each of the past two years. You even get him at a discount to Harvick in both DFS and betting. So we're clearly going to favor Truex over Harvick.

As discussed in this week's track preview, we want to look extra hard for drivers in the $10,000 to $12,000 range with the upside to run up front and lead laps. Being more balanced among our studs can help us jam in a third lap-leader, which is a desirable strategy in a 325-lap race. We've got some good options there.

Two standouts in the $11,000 range are Logano and Denny Hamlin ($11,700). Hamlin's form is solid, and he has two top-fives in Atlanta the past three seasons. Logano hasn't necessarily thrived here, specifically, but he does run well on 1.5-mile tracks and ranks fifth in my model. Hamlin is second (behind Truex), so we should favor Hamlin, but Logano's in play, too.

Blaney grades out well at $10,500, as well. Blaney doesn't tend to excel on tracks with heavy tire wear, but 2019 showed that Atlanta can be an exception. He followed that up with a fourth-place finish in last year's race. He has the upside to lead the race and win at a middling salary, which is hyper attractive in a race of this length.

Penske Racing is relevant for value plays, too. Austin Cindric ($6,200) is starting 39th because he's running a limited schedule, but he is in a Penske car. That means he'll have the speed. Cindric has talent, too, as evidenced by his eight wins in the Xfinity Series since the start of last year. Both he and the Penske-affiliated Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800) provide speed with place-differential upside as DiBenedetto will start 20th.

The other driver worth highlighting for place-differential is Tyler Reddick ($7,500). Reddick mops up at Homestead, and as mentioned, there is an overlap between the two tracks thanks to the tire falloff. Reddick had a top-16 average running position in all five races at high-banked 1.5-mile tracks last year, including a runner-up finish in Texas and an additional top-10 in Charlotte. He'll roll off 29th. Between Cindric, DiBenedetto, Reddick, and a few others, you should have plenty of salary flexibility to jam in three lap-leaders without having to completely punt.