Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
Ya gotta love it when theory and reality mesh to perfection. We get that this week in NASCAR DFS at Sonoma.
With Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 being just 90 laps long, we have incentive to target drivers starting further back. The limited number of laps caps the upside for drivers up front while the number of place-differential points remains the same as usual. Our default here is to bump up the appeal of drivers starting further back.
This week, we don't have to strain ourselves to do so. Thanks to some poor runs last week in Charlotte, we've got a favorite starting in the middle of the pack and mid-range plays starting in the 20s. You can gun for place-differential without sacrificing good finishing potential.
We just have to decide who starting further back has the juice necessary to pay off. That's where the data comes into play.
The sheet for this week's race will look very similar to COTA two weeks ago. The current form section is the same six races at ovals using the 750-horsepower package this year. The only change is the addition of data from COTA in the road-course section.
As always, the number listed is the driver's average running position during that race. Kurt Busch ($8,500 on FanDuel) hydroplaned during the heavy-rain portion of the race and somehow avoided rear-ending his brother, Kyle Busch ($13,000). The off-road excursion pushed Kurt back to a 27th-place finish, but his 12th-place average running position is a better indicator of his speed.
The other numbers listed are each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at Online Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000) being listed at 3.5 means he's +350 to win.
| Current Form | Road- Course History | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Start | Dover | Darlington | Richmond | Martinsville | Bristol | Phoenix | COTA | Daytona 2021 | Charlotte 2020 | Daytona 2020 | Charlotte 2019 | Watkins Glen 2019 | Sonoma 2019 |
| Kyle Larson | $12,500 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 10 | -- | -- | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| Chase Elliott | $14,500 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 15 |
| William Byron | $11,500 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 11 |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,000 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 10 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,000 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,200 | 150 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 22 | -- | 21 | 29 | 24 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,500 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 13 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,200 | 28 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,300 | 50 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 14 | 25 | 16 | 23 | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,000 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 80 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 26 | 16 | 13 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| Joey Logano | $11,000 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,500 | 200 | 14 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| Bubba Wallace | $4,500 | 250 | 15 | 15 | 22 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 31 | 25 | 19 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 26 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,500 | 100 | 16 | 14 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 4 | 24 | 35 | 19 | 26 | 26 | 11 | 21 | 17 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,500 | 80 | 17 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| Erik Jones | $6,000 | 150 | 18 | 22 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 36 | 7 | 14 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $14,000 | 3.5 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 28 | 20 | 21 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 30 | 6 | 11 | 15 | -- | -- | -- |
| Michael McDowell | $8,000 | 66 | 21 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 24 | 11 | 20 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 23 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,000 | 1000 | 22 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 26 | 37 | 24 | 18 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 31 | 32 | 29 |
| Cole Custer | $6,700 | 100 | 23 | 18 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Newman | $5,000 | 200 | 24 | 24 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 24 | 19 | 24 | 12 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,200 | 80 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aric Almirola | $5,200 | 200 | 26 | 22 | 37 | 12 | 21 | 35 | 14 | 23 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,500 | 250 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 27 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 1000 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 38 | 36 | 22 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ross Chastain | $7,000 | 80 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 20 | 10 | 30 | -- | -- | 36 | 29 | 34 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,500 | 66 | 30 | 12 | 30 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 11 | 14 |
| Ben Rhodes | $2,000 | 1000 | 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| James Davison | $2,500 | 1000 | 32 | 36 | 32 | 35 | 33 | -- | 33 | 32 | 28 | 30 | 31 | -- | -- | -- |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 1000 | 33 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 33 | 33 | 40 | 32 | 35 | -- | -- | -- |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 1000 | 34 | 34 | -- | 33 | -- | -- | 35 | 28 | 33 | -- | 33 | 31 | -- | -- |
| Scott Heckert | $2,000 | 1000 | 35 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 34 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 1000 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 37 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 30 | 32 | 31 | -- | 34 | 31 | -- |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 1000 | 37 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 28 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | 33 | 34 |
Two of the aforementioned drivers -- Truex and Kurt Busch -- are prime options for place-differential. Truex is a lock for cash games, and Busch should be high on that list, as well. Two other names to consider there are Christopher Bell ($9,000) and Michael McDowell ($8,000).
Bell won at the Daytona roval, so clearly road courses are no issue for him. He also has quality form in the 750-horsepower package with a top-11 average running position in four of six races. Bell deserves to be a focal point for tournaments in addition to his appeal for cash games.
McDowell doesn't have the form, but he's a road-course ace. He has top-10 finishes in both road races this year and was also 10th at Daytona last year. His equipment lowers his ceiling, meaning we should be heavier on Bell and Busch in this tier. McDowell should still be a core consideration, though.
In order to jam in Truex while not passing up Chase Elliott ($14,500), you'll need value plays. Three who have run well on recent road courses are Chase Briscoe ($7,200), Ross Chastain ($7,000), and Ryan Preece ($4,500).
All three drivers had a top-12 average running position at COTA. Chastain converted that into a fourth-place finish while Briscoe was sixth, making them easy sells starting further back.
Preece finished just 15th, but there are other reasons to like him. He finished ninth in Daytona and has a top-20 average running position in all four road-course races since the start of last year. Starting 27th at $4,500, Preece is a lively punting option if you want to load up on studs while still getting exposure to the mid-range with Bell, Busch, and McDowell.
