NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Ambetter 301

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide. For driver picks and a full preview of the event, he also discussed this weekend's race on the latest NASCAR episode of The Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Ambetter 301 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

We're back to a traditional practice-qualifying joint session this weekend, and it'll be a crucial one.

New Hampshire is a flat, one-mile oval dubbed "The Magic Mile." It's not exactly renowned for world-class racing, but it's an important trip to New England for the NASCAR fans up there.

Short, flat tracks have been nightmarish to pass on with this new car. Some combination of the drivers shifting on this track type and the rear diffuser underneath this next-generation car has made it seemingly impossible to pass.

As a result, the fast cars have tended to qualify up front and stay there. This won't be close to last week in Atlanta where the proper strategy was to load up on fast cars towards the back of the starting grid. In this case, you'll want to keenly watch the first two rows on the starting grid for potential dominant runs -- especially if they're fast in practice.

General Lineup Strategy

With 301 laps on the docket (and 30.1 FanDuel points for laps led), New Hampshire will be much closer to a short track than a road course in terms of strategy.

One or two dominant drivers have led the way on short, flat ovals thus far this season. Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney led 78.2% of the laps together in Phoenix, Chase Elliott and William Byron led 98.5% of the laps at Martinsville, and Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. led 44.1% combined in St. Louis -- though that race was jumbled by Ross Chastain drama.

Overwhelmingly, we should expect a pair of cars to soak up a majority of the upside at the front of Sunday's race. As a result, taking three swipes at whomever that may be -- even into the mid-range with viable contenders -- is the key priority.

The race is long enough to still justify using a value driver with them that has place-differential upside (i.e. he starts at the back), but the key factor needs to be speed whether it comes with place-differential upside or not.

The two values drivers in the perfect lineup at St. Louis (Aric Almirola and Erik Jones) were fifth and eighth in single-lap practice speeds. Almirola started 8th; Jones started 21st. Ideally, you'd rather have the guy starting deeper in the field, but it's not as important as identifying a fast car that can finish up front.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations were included.

As a great indicator of overall speed, MLT Rank is the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend. The prior races in the sample this week are:

2022 St. Louis (Spring) - 40%
2022 Martinsville (Spring) - 30%
2022 Phoenix (Spring) - 30%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance to lead the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to finish in terms of potential to finish inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

With zero wins this season and zero "special" results on short, flat ovals, I was surprised to see Ryan Blaney ($14,000) at the top of the driver pool, but he's worth it.

Blaney had a top-three median lap time ranking at all three short, flat ovals in my sample this week. He only led 12 laps at Martinsville and Gateway because passing was so difficult, but his car has routinely shown up best in show to start the weekend. If he can start on the front row, Blaney could have a stellar afternoon.

Teammate Joey Logano ($13,500) was faster than Blaney at Gateway in St. Louis, and he won the race, so he's a worthy second option.

Chase Elliott ($13,000) is the hottest driver in NASCAR on the heels of two wins and a second-place finish in his last three, and he has been solid at this track type, as well. He had the fastest median time at Phoenix and led 185 laps at Martinsville. Early crash damage from Ross Chastain ($11,500) ruined his speed at Gateway, but he'll be a factor.

Chastain has been lightning quick at every circuit, so he'll be viable Sunday as well. It's just a wonder if payback starts to hit after he crashed Denny Hamlin ($12,000) again last week. Conceivably, Hamlin owes him two bits of payback that could come at any time.

Hamlin's teammate, Kyle Busch ($12,500), has a top-five median average ranking on this track type, so don't be surprised to see them contend as well. Christopher Bell ($9,500) is from the same stable, and he's a three-time Xfinity Series winner here. Bell also finished second at New Hampshire last season.

The mid-range will be largely dependent on practice, but all signs point to Tyler Reddick ($8,500) being a decent third or fourth potential lap leader. He's got a top-10 median averaging ranking in this sample, and Reddick just won two weeks ago at Road America. It was awkwardly announced this week he's leaving this team in 2024, so that's a bit of a risk, but it's so far removed from now that I'm not sure it matters.

Aric Almirola ($7,800) has been a maestro on short, flat ovals for two seasons now, and comfortably holding a top-10 average running position at Gateway didn't change that. He'll be viable starting anywhere if he shows good speed in practice.

The value range has plenty of contenders, as well.

Daniel Suarez ($7,500) is in a salary far too low for his equipment than matches Chastain's. Austin Cindric ($6,500) was leading early at Gateway until a pit road issue, and he'll share notes with Blaney and Logano this weekend. Michael McDowell ($6,800) also popped for 32 laps led in St. Louis.

However, most interesting of all might be the punt salary on Bubba Wallace ($5,500), who posted a top-20 median time at Gateway and a 16th-place finish at Martinsville. If his pit crew can run a clean race, Wallace can contend for a top-10 finish sharing notes with Busch, Bell, Hamlin, and the other Toyotas.