NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: GEICO 500

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

This is Talladega, and that's why this helper won't be so helpful.

The 2.66-mile oval in Alabama is arguably the second-most famous circuit in NASCAR thanks to its prestige and non-stop entertaining style. The tight-knit pack racing leads to passes, lead changes, and carnage in just about every Talladega event.

NASCAR owners realized about a decade ago that practicing here would just lead to smashed race cars, so in lieu of the single-line team-car practice runs that weren't overly helpful, the charade has been scrapped.

This daily fantasy slate will mostly be decided by Saturday's qualifying. Daytona and Talladega are as qualifying-dependent as any circuits on the schedule, so it's good news that weather appears it will cooperate. If this session gets rained out, a bulk of the favorites to win will start up front, which would make them poor daily fantasy plays.

General Lineup Strategy

The reason qualifying is so impactful is that our drafting-oval strategy in DFS is tried and true -- stack the back.

With cars being able to move through the field, starting spot doesn't actually correlate well with finishing. Running toward the front can help avoid the mayhem, but strong cars can get there from back in the pack with more ease than any other configuration in NASCAR.

However, in recent years, we've seen a wrinkle to this strategy. Manufacturers work together at Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta more than they do at most tracks, so there is an appeal to stacking Ford, Chevrolet, or Toyota in a particular lineup. These cars generally pit together as a unit, and without a late caution flag, the top runners in the race could be whichever stable works together most efficiently.

Stacking can help differentiate your lineup from chalk value plays that will inevitably be viable. Using only drivers starting at the back won't gather all top finishers, and using none will leave too many place-differential points on the table.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank is the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend as a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

2022 Talladega (Fall) - 40%
2023 Daytona (Spring) - 40%
2023 Atlanta (Spring) - 20%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Although my rankings are largely meaningless this week on an individual level, I wrote the story of the weekend with them.

I'm expecting Ford to be the favorite. Joey Logano ($14,000) and Brad Keselowski ($10,500) combined to lead 187 of 260 laps at Atlanta in March. Keselowski and teammate Chris Buescher ($7,500) were in control of the Daytona 500 before a late restart. Ryan Blaney ($13,500) and Kevin Harvick ($8,800) are former winners at Talladega, too. It's a strong stable.

However, Toyota is likely next in line. Denny Hamlin ($12,000) was the only other non-Ford who led more than 10 laps in Atlanta. Bubba Wallace ($10,000) is a former Talladega winner who has led in four of the past five races here, and Christopher Bell ($11,000), Martin Truex Jr. ($8,500), and Tyler Reddick ($7,800) are other quality feature pieces.

Then, I'd rank Chevrolet last. That's despite them having the most entries in the field, and there is strength in numbers. Their odds were certainly boosted by Chase Elliott ($13,000), a former Talladega winner, returning to provide a solid 1-2 punch with William Byron ($12,500). Kyle Larson ($9,000) and Alex Bowman ($7,200) are Hendrick teammates with poor drafting records, but they can follow.

The reason why is that Chevy has factions. Kyle Busch ($9,500) and Austin Dillon ($7,000) are at a separate camp with RCR and are more likely to work with other ECR engines, including Ross Chastain ($11,000), Daytona 500 winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,200), Erik Jones ($6,800), Daniel Suarez ($6,000), and former Daytona winner Justin Haley ($5,000).

There's more drafting skill out of the secondary RCR Chevrolet camp, but the better equipment usually lies with Hendrick Motorsports. For that reason, Larson and Bowman typically qualify well and therefore become untargetable from a DFS perspective.

There are two other groups of smaller teams that I want to point out, too.

Though Harvick is among the favorites, Stewart-Haas Racing is largely an underdog most Sundays, yet Aric Almirola ($6,500) and Ryan Preece ($4,800) could help Harvick change that on Sunday. Almirola's a previous winner here, and despite this being Preece's first Talladega start in decent equipment, he's already got four top-15 finishes in six starts at this track.

The final Chevrolet that deserves consideration is more closely tied to RCR, and that's Corey Lajoie ($4,200). Lajoie has two top-15 finishes in 10 starts here, and he's outperformed his starting spot in all but one of them.

Lajoie -- and several of the underdogs -- can be viable flex plays. Riley Herbst ($3,500) is my lowest-ranked driver, and he was the best FanDuel play in the Daytona 500, when he finished 10th from the 38th starting spot. Anyone in the rankings could emerge with a top-15 finish this weekend.