NASCAR Betting Guide: Goodyear 400
On NASCAR's annual throwback weekend, we're having a bit of a throwback in the betting sphere as well. It's just not as far in the way-back machine as the cars you'll see on track; it's back to 2021.
That year, Kyle Larson won 10 races en route to his first Cup Series championship. There were races where you could bet Larson at +400 without it feeling like a donkey move.
For Sunday's Goodyear 400 in Darlington, my model has Larson at 15.0% to win. It's his third straight week at 15.0% or higher. He didn't win either of the other two, but he had a rocketship both times.
The problem is that Larson's +500 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's betting odds for Darlington. The implied odds there are 16.7%, higher than where I've got him. So unless you can find Larson at +600 or longer, he's a tough sell.
And with Larson sucking up so much win equity again, it's hard to find value elsewhere in the outright market. As of now, I don't see anybody else I'm willing to bet.
Lucky for us, Larson can't occupy every spot in the top 10. At least, I don't think he can. Doubting Larson doesn't typically end well.
With Larson's gravity being lessened in that market, there is a bet I do like prior to practice. We can circle back after qualifying and add more later, but for now, I think there's just a single quality value on the board for Sunday's race.
Corey LaJoie to Finish Top 10 (+1100)
You can bet Corey LaJoie as long as +1500 to finish in the top 10. But hypothetically, if the only number available to you is +1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook, even that's a value for me.
My model has LaJoie's top-10 odds at 12.4%, up from 8.3% implied at +1100. That may seem wild given LaJoie's career top-10 rate is 2.8%, and it's 0.0% on non-drafting tracks. But, frankly, that data is irrelevant.
LaJoie is undoubtedly in the best form of his career. In four non-drafting races using the rules package they'll use Sunday, LaJoie has had three top-20 average running positions, and he has finished top 20 in all of them.
The most impressive run for LaJoie came in Fontana. He started up front with qualifying rained out, but he held his ground the entire race, turning a 14th-place average running position into a 14th-place finish. Given that Fontana -- like Darlington -- is a track where tires degrade significantly, it's a noteworthy data point.
We've also seen LaJoie pop at Darlington before. Back in 2021, he had a 13th-place average running position and finished 15th. It's the best average running position of his entire career, superspeedways included.
The track seems to suit LaJoie, and he's in far better form now. I don't think the model is entirely off here. Obviously, you'd prefer to get the +1500, but even at +1100, I'd be willing to bite.
Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+850)
I was close to showing value on William Byron to win before the weekend. But once he showed big speed in practice and qualified fourth, he became a must-add.
In Saturday's practice, three drivers were consistently near the top of the sheet in each lap-average category: Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, and Byron. They -- along with Ross Chastain -- seemed to have the best cars.
Of that group, my model was highest on Byron entering the weekend. He then went out and qualified fourth, and while single-lap speed isn't a big factor here, you'll never turn down good track position.
After qualifying, my model has Byron's win odds up to 12.3%, above his implied odds of 10.5%. Byron had a top-six average running position in both races here last year, and he had a shot to win the spring race. I think he has a good shot at redemption today.
