NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Toyota/Save Mart 350

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Sonoma Raceway was one of NASCAR's original road courses before the half-dozen stops on the schedule now, and it's for a reason. This is a great one for stock cars.

NASCAR runs the 11-turn, 1.95-mile configuration NASCAR runs with the "chute" to shorten the track from the standard version, which creates a better environment than the slow, winding carousel.

Because this pavement is relatively old (1985), tire wear is pretty severe, but with only two -- maybe three -- quality passing zones, drivers prefer track position when they can grab it. For instance, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were the top-two cars in practice and qualifying a year ago, but when they pitted after stage victories, they never returned to the front.

The new aerodynamic package was fairly successful in COTA earlier this year, so those fast cars might have a better chance to ascend in 2023.

General Lineup Strategy

Because my process is built around projecting speed, I admittedly whiffed here a year ago.

Hendrick Motorsports badly miscalculated and prioritized stage points over track position with the aforementioned Larson and Elliott, sinking both's chances of winning. Their mistakes resulted in -- nearly across the board -- drivers pitting before the stage breaks at the rest of 2022's road course schedule. With that lesson learned, I'm sticking with what I had.

There aren't many passing spots, so the lead doesn't shuffle here much under green. There was one pass for the lead last year under green and not due to pit stops; it was eventual winner Daniel Suarez sneaking past Chris Buescher three laps into the run.

Even with that being the case, there are only 110 laps in this race -- and 11.0 FanDuel points for laps led. That's the equivalent of 22 place-differential points, so at road courses -- above anywhere except drafting ovals -- we want to be open to targeting place-differential options where we can find them.

Of the top-10 finishers a year ago, four started outside the top 20. Of those four, three had top-15 practice times, and the exception (Austin Cindric) was a multi-time Xfinity Series winner on road courses who I had ranked eighth entering the weekend. They weren't shockers despite starting deep in the field.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank is the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend as a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

2023 Austin (Spring) - 100%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Kyle Larson ($13,500) won here in 2021 and had the best car before the strategy miscue in 2022. I wouldn't blame anyone for ranking him first, but I'd like to see it. He's led just five laps in the last five road course races. I'd label him a "horse for the course" who I obviously still think can contend.

As for Chase Elliott ($14,000), it's been nine road course starts since he won. His legend is more fiction than fact in this competitive era of left-and-right specialists, and he's never peaked at Sonoma. Elliott has two top-fives in six starts with 42 total laps led. Is that solid? Yes. Is it worth his status as an overwhelming, popular favorite? No.

I'm placing the current titleholder of "Best Road Course Driver" at number one this week. Tyler Reddick ($13,000) has won three of the past five at road courses without a finish below eighth. He'll need that to carry forward here, lacking a top-15 finish in two starts. Those were mechanical or on-track incidents, and he had a top-five average running position last year, so I think he's sliding under the radar.

Daniel Suarez ($11,000) definitely won't. Last year's Sonoma winner also had the second-fastest median time at COTA. He's become a regular to watch on these types of circuits.

His teammate, Ross Chastain ($12,000), has a road course win from Austin last year. A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500) and Christopher Bell ($10,000) round out the seven drivers that have combined to win all 14 races on road courses since the start of 2021, and all will likely make my tournament pool this weekend.

Though yet to punch through with a win, William Byron ($12,500) has won everywhere in 2023 and led 28 laps in Austin. Don't write him off when he was the strongest Hendrick Motorsports machine there. Chase Elliott didn't start due to a broken leg, though.

I'd add Austin Cindric ($9,500) and Martin Truex Jr. ($8,200) as the final two drivers I could envision winning this race. Cindric's strong effort at Sonoma led to a runner-up at Indianapolis, and Truex is a three-time Sonoma winner that should benefit from Reddick's apparent aid to the speed of Toyota on road courses.

From the value bin, Chris Buescher ($9,000) and Michael McDowell ($7,000) stick out like sore thumbs after podium finishes a year ago, but they combined for 11 top-10 finishes on road courses last year. Even if they qualify well, I'll be here seeing the requisite speed in practice.

Chase Briscoe ($6,500) is the last truly intriguing name when there is a definite chasm between haves and have-nots on road courses. Briscoe, a two-time Xfinity Series winner on road courses, has four top-15 finishes in his last six road course starts, which doesn't even include the 2021 Indianapolis race where he was wrecked from the lead on the final lap.