Re-Drafting the 2012 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happend
Now, if we sort the draft by players with the highest VORP over their first four NBA seasons, the results are a bit different.
| Pick | Team | Player | VORP | nERD | WS/48 | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans | Damian Lillard | 14.4 | 21.0 | 0.144 | 35.2 |
| 2 | Charlotte | Anthony Davis | 13.8 | 41.9 | 0.205 | 37.7 |
| 3 | Washington | Draymond Green | 11.8 | 16.2 | 0.145 | 24.7 |
| 4 | Cleveland | Andre Drummond | 6.0 | 22.0 | 0.156 | 29.4 |
| 5 | Sacramento | Jae Crowder | 5.2 | 4.5 | 0.110 | 15.1 |
| 6 | Portland | Jared Sullinger | 4.3 | 4.5 | 0.115 | 15.4 |
| 7 | Golden State | Khris Middleton | 4.1 | -0.9 | 0.096 | 16.4 |
| 8 | Toronto | Bradley Beal | 3.3 | -6.9 | 0.080 | 13.4 |
| 9 | Detroit | John Henson | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.109 | 11.1 |
| 10 | New Orleans | Harrison Barnes | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.098 | 17.7 |
When we re-draft based on advanced numbers, five of the original top 10 return. However, there is a notable shakeup with the top overall pick.
Davis has not disappointed Pelicans fans with his career averages of 20.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 2.4 blocks per game through four seasons, but his inability to stay on the court, 68 career missed games, has been a cause for concern.
Contrast that with new number-one pick, Lillard, who began his career starting in 275 consecutive games, and it shouldn't really come as a surprise that the Portland Trail Blazers' floor general finds his way at the top. He did, after all, take home the Rookie of the Year hardware in 2012-13 as well.
The significant change in our top 10 comes in the form of three second-round picks: Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, and Khris Middleton. Despite Green and Crowder being named to the NCAA All-America teams, both were seen as undersized and were passed over by every team in the NBA. Middleton, just like Crowder, benefited from a trade after an unimpressive start to his NBA career.
An outstanding collegiate career by Jared Sullinger was overshadowed by injury concerns, causing him to fall outside of the top 20. Four solid years with the Boston Celtics catapult him up to six. Big man Drummond has become the franchise cornerstone the Detroit Pistons were hoping for when they took him with the ninth pick.
Fresh off his first All-Star appearance, the former Connecticut Huskie just inked the largest contract in Detroit history. Milwaukee Bucks backup center John Henson has proven to be a worthy lottery pick as he jumps up five spots and into the top 10.
While still remaining in the top 10, Bradley Beal and Barnes have not lived up to the draft-day hype. To Barnes' credit, he has earned a championship and will get a chance to prove himself as a leading man with the Dallas Mavericks. Time will tell if being away from the shadows of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and the rest of the Golden State Warriors helps or hurts the small forward.
Beal, on the other hand, has proven to be an explosive scorer. His problem has been staying healthy, as he has missed 81 games in four seasons.
