What Would Happen If the NBA Playoffs Started Today?

First Round

East

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (61.1 nERD) vs. 8. Chicago Bulls (46.8)

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade wouldn't have to wait long to meet in the playoffs with Wade in a Bulls uniform. The Bulls, ranked fourth in total rebounding, win the battle of the boards in this matchup, but the Cavaliers' advantage from the three-point line (13.2 to 6.7 makes per game) would prove too much. Such a big gap in nERD suggests that this series would likely end in a 4-1 Cavs win.

4. Toronto Raptors (64.8) vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks (49.1)

The Hawks' fifth-ranked defense would give the Raptors fits. But, if Kyle Lowry returns to full health, he and DeMar DeRozan would bring too much to the table offensively. Their aggressiveness would give them the edge at the free throw line, where they've been better than all but one team, with 20.3 makes a contest. The most probable outcome here is Toronto taking four in a five-game series.

3. Washington Wizards (56.0) vs. 6. Indiana Pacers (47.9)

Both the Wizards and Pacers are near the bottom of the barrel in rebounding and three-point shooting. Washington has a slight edge in both categories as well as a net rating of 2.4 to Indiana's -1.0. Therefore, it'd likely be as close of an outcome as you can have, but the Wizards, with a 26-9 record at home, should edge out the Pacers by virtue of seeding and homecourt advantage.

2. Boston Celtics (56.4) vs. 7. Detroit Pistons (50.8)

If you think that's close, this is, by nERD, the closest matchup of the Eastern Conference's first round. The Pistons' defense would need to continue their pressure from beyond the arc -- as they hold opponents to 8.9 threes per game -- but the Celtics hold their opponents to 9.0 threes and an effective field goal percentage of just 50.6%. The Celtics should expect a six or seven-game series, but either way, they're the better team.

West

1. Golden State Warriors (82.0 nERD) vs. 8. Denver Nuggets (45.4)

The Nuggets rank 26th and 30th in steals (8.5) and turnovers against (12.1) per game, respectively. On the other side of that same conversation, the Warriors rank first in both steals (9.7) and turnovers forced (15.6). Along with the disparity in talent, that would make for a series blowout. This is the biggest difference between first round opponents, so the expectation would be that the Warriors take this in four straight games.

4. Utah Jazz (64.1) vs. 5. Los Angeles Clippers (61.1)

By our measures, this would be the closest first round series of the eight. While the Clippers derive 19 points per game from the free throw line, the Jazz rank sixth in the NBA by surrendering just .193 free throws per field goal attempt. These teams are closely matched, and in series like this, the foul line can be the deciding factor. We're looking at a seven-game series and a narrow win on the part of the Jazz.

3. Houston Rockets (66.4) vs. 6. Memphis Grizzlies (52.1)

The Grizzlies are sixth in the league in defensive rating (106.6) and hold opponents to 34.6% from the three-point arc. The Rockets, however, are second in offensive rating (115.2) and attempt a league-high 40.5 treys a game. The teams have split four games so far this season, so this would be a decently close series. Nonetheless, the Rockets have a noticeable advantage -- one worthy of a 4-2 series win.

2. San Antonio Spurs (75.4) vs. 7. Oklahoma City Thunder (48.2)

Russell Westbrook's been great. The Thunder, as a team, are just 22nd in effective field goal percentage (49.8%) and 21st in turnover percentage (13.3%). Against the Spurs, in those categories, teams shoot an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% and turn the ball over on 13.6% of possessions. The Thunder feed right into the Spurs' hands, and such a disparity in nERD suggests a 4-0 sweep for head coach Gregg Popovich and company.