Which 2018 NBA Rising Stars Challenge Participants Profile as Future Superstars?
Pass-First Points
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
| Comparable Seasons | Match % |
|---|---|
| Jason Kidd, 2001-02 | 90.40% |
| Jrue Holiday, 2016-17 | 89.91% |
| John Wall, 2015-16 | 88.78% |
| Jason Kidd, 2000-01 | 88.61% |
| John Wall, 2014-15 | 86.90% |
Joining his teammate near the top of the ranks, Simmons is one of the NBA's best passers at 21 years of age. He stands 6'10" and has the vision of a guard, not to mention the ability to get into the lane at will and grab contested rebounds down low.
According to our database, his rookie season resembles that of a 28-year-old Jason Kidd. Back in his eighth season and first with the New Jersey Nets, Kidd averaged 14.7 points, 9.9 assists and 7.3 rebounds along with 2.1 steals. Unlike Simmons, Kidd would hit the occasional jumper, but the fact that the 10-time All-Star shows up twice speaks volumes about the career ahead of Simmons. And as a kicker, John Wall's two seasons were also All-Star caliber years.
It shouldn't be surprising that Simmons was right in the mix for an All-Star spot in the Eastern Conference. Of the players not to make the showcase, he ranks 21st in points (16.4), 2nd in assists (7.3), 15th in rebounds (7.8) and 2nd in steals (1.9) per game.
| Comparable Seasons | Match % |
|---|---|
| Baron Davis, 2008-09 | 93.27% |
| John Wall, 2010-11 | 92.72% |
| Jamaal Tinsley, 2006-07 | 92.72% |
| Elfrid Payton, 2014-15 | 92.61% |
| Russell Westbrook, 2008-09 | 92.52% |
Dunn is two years older than Simmons and has a year of disappointing basketball (albeit with the Minnesota Timberwolves) under his belt. All the same, Dunn's 2017-18 season gives reason for optimism.
He's had to deal with some injuries, but he has some very nice matches above 90%. In his 10th season, Baron Davis averaged 14.9 points, 7.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals in 65 games (60 starts). His -8.6 nERD was much worse than Dunn's -3.7 mark, so the second-year player actually has some more efficiency to his game. That could be the reason he draws solid comparisons to the rookie seasons of Wall and Russell Westbrook.
Dunn's length and athleticism isn't quite to the level of a Wall or Westbrook, but he's been able to double his steals to 2.0 per game while contributing across-the-board production in his second system in two NBA seasons.
