Fantasy Basketball: The numberFire Hoops Writers' Draft 2018-19
Round 3
| Pick | Overall | Player | Team | Position | Writer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | Devin Booker | PHO | PG/SG | Ian Goldsmith |
| 2 | 26 | Kyle Lowry | TOR | PG | Russell Peddle |
| 3 | 27 | Donovan Mitchell | UTA | PG/SG | Brett Oswalt |
| 4 | 28 | Eric Bledsoe | MIL | PG/SG | Sam Hauss |
| 5 | 29 | LaMarcus Aldridge | SA | PF/C | Alex McDonald |
| 6 | 30 | Khris Middleton | MIL | SG/SF | Tom Whalen |
| 7 | 31 | Bradley Beal | WAS | SG | Michael Rondello |
| 8 | 32 | CJ McCollum | POR | PG/SG | Jordan Sharp |
| 9 | 33 | DeMar DeRozan | SA | SG/SF | Austan Kas |
| 10 | 34 | Blake Griffin | DET | PF/C | Jay Kim |
| 11 | 35 | Clint Capela | HOU | PF/C | Shae Cronin |
| 12 | 36 | Draymond Green | GS | PF/C | Dale Redman |
Ian Goldsmith taking Devin Booker here at 25 is perfectly in line with his 24.0 ADP across the industry, but our 47th-ranked projection suggests that the fourth-year guard has some bust potential. He only ranked 48th in nine-category leagues last year (including a stretch of 70th-ranked returns over the last two months of the season), and he's currently fighting his way back from hand surgery so you might want to fade him at his price tag this year.
Other potential busts in this round include Donovan Mitchell (ADP of 22.3, 43rd in our rankings), Bradley Beal (ADP of 27.3, 42nd in our rankings), and DeMar DeRozan (ADP of 24.3, 54th in our rankings). Mitchell has high upside going into his sophomore year, but was only ranked 71st over the last two months of his rookie campaign. Beal has been healthy the last two years, but missed 19 or more games in three of the four years before that. DeRozan has finished between 46th and 49th in nine-category leagues in each of the last three seasons. It's easy to get enamored with high-upside sophomores (Mitchell), previously injury-prone players on an upswing (Beal), and All-Stars on new teams (DeRozan), but don't ignore past data and reach for them.
On the other end of the spectrum, Clint Capela is a steal at 35. He was taken right around his ADP of 39.3, but he's one of our breakout candidates this year with our projections slotting him 25th overall.
My pick: Kyle Lowry was admittedly a bit of a homer pick here, being that I'm a proud Canadian and Toronto Raptors fan, but I'm also not letting a guy that's finished as a first-round value in two of the last three seasons slip by me at pick 26. His minutes and production took a bit of a hit last year (when he finished 29th overall), but I'm very much buying in this year to see how he performs next to Kawhi Leonard.
