How a Weekend of Buzzer-Beating Game Winners Changed the Trajectory of the 2015 NBA Playoffs
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Game 3
It's hard not to chalk Rose's long-range prayer going in up to dumb luck, but regardless of how much skill was involved, the Bulls won the game. This was the definition of a back-and-forth affair (just look at the win probability chart below for proof), as there were a total of 17 ties and 19 lead changes. (Just click on the graph for a clearer view.)
As you can see, the Bulls began pulling away during the fourth quarter, peaking at close to an 80% win probability with about five minutes to go and a growing 89-84 lead. The Cavaliers came back and flipped the script with an 9-3 run to make it 93-92 Cavaliers with 41 seconds remaining (that spot where the red briefly overtakes the blue near the end of the above chart), but Rose's miracle heave made all the difference. The Bulls walked away with a win and a 2-1 series lead, putting the Cavaliers on the ropes after taking Game 1 in Cleveland as well.
Odds because the Bulls won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 1 | 33.03% | 16.51% | 5.03% |
| Bulls | 2 | 66.97% | 33.32% | 8.97% |
The Cavaliers had been one of the leading Eastern Conference contenders since the playoffs began, according to our algorithms, but this win changed that. With the victory, Chicago suddenly became the second most likely team to come out of the East, trailing the Atlanta Hawks by less than 2%. The thoughts of the first title in Chicago since MJ started looking like more of a possibility and Derrick Rose was once again a hero in the Windy City.
But what if he hadn't hit that shot?
Odds if the Cavaliers had won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 2 | 70.49% | 35.98% | 10.70% |
| Bulls | 1 | 29.51% | 14.77% | 4.02% |
If Rose's shot had rimmed out and Cleveland had gone on to win the game, they would've reclaimed homecourt advantage and taken a stranglehold on the series odds. They also would've nearly doubled their championship chances. Instead, at 5.03%, they hit a playoff low with the loss.
In the end, Rose's shot went down, the Bulls went up in the series, and they saw a 37.46% swing in their odds to win it. That was fun for Chicago fans -- at least for most of the weekend -- but remember: one shot can change everything.
More on that in a moment.
