How a Weekend of Buzzer-Beating Game Winners Changed the Trajectory of the 2015 NBA Playoffs
Hawks vs. Wizards Game 3
I guess that's why they brought him there.
After taking Game 1 in Atlanta, Washington was cruising its way to a win and a 2-1 series lead in Game 3, until the Hawks came soaring back in the fourth quarter. The Wizards entered the frame with a commanding 85-66 lead over the top-seeded Hawks, but Atlanta's bench rallied behind some unlikely heroes in Dennis Schroder and Mike Muscala.
It was a 27-foot three-pointer by Muscala with 14 seconds left that finally dragged the Hawks back to a 50% chance of winning the game (having not sniffed those kinds of odds since pulling to within three, down 14-17 with about four minutes left in the first frame).
That crazy shot is now all but forgotten and we won't remember this as the "Mike Muscala game," simply because The Truth did as The Truth does.
Our algorithms have stayed high on the Atlanta Hawks throughout their pedestrian playoff run, but Pierce's shot caused one of the biggest swings you can imagine (especially since the odds you are about to see assume John Wall is out for the rest of the playoffs -- as someone with five fractures in his wrist probably should be).
Odds because the Wizards won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | 1 | 44.39% | 25.52% | 10.33% |
| Wizards | 2 | 55.61% | 19.82% | 4.16% |
With the win, the Wizards took a lead in our odds for the series for the first time. They still trail the Hawks in chances of being the Eastern Conference or NBA Finals champs, simply because our algorithms like Atlanta to give Cleveland or Chicago more of a fight than a Wall-less Wizards would.
Then again, what do our algorithms know? Just look at how much Paul Pierce managed to annihilate them with one banked fadeaway.
Odds if the Hawks had won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | 2 | 80.13% | 45.92% | 18.18% |
| Wizards | 1 | 19.87% | 7.08% | 1.21% |
If the Hawks had taken Game 3 and reclaimed homecourt advantage, they would've upped their series odds to a commanding 80.13%, their chances of coming out of the East up to 45.92% (which would've been the highest odds to make the finals of any team in the whole NBA), and their championship odds to 18.18% (which would've come third in the Association to Western Conference powerhouses the Golden State Warriors at 29.20% and the Los Angeles Clippers at 26.12%).
Luckily for the Wizards, Paul Pierce called "game" and swung the series odds by a whopping 35.74% in doing so.
