NBA

3 Daily Fantasy Basketball Players to Avoid on 3/4/19

Dale Redman  —  @DTRedman Mar 4th, 2019
Kelly Oubre will have a hard time living up to his lofty price tag against the Bucks. Who else are we staying away from in NBA DFS tonight?

In daily fantasy basketball, finding players you want to roster is a lot easier than finding players to avoid.

You can find a ton of great information and research on guys you might want to include in your DFS NBA lineups, but what about guys you may want to lessen your exposure to, or even fade altogether?

Avoiding players whose matchups or situations aren't as great as they seem can often be just as important as finding the best targets. After all, it takes only one player to sink a lineup. Searching for the landmines could mean the difference between winning and losing your contests. Which players should we avoid tonight?

Kelly Oubre, SF, Phoenix Suns

FanDuel Price: $7,700

In the five games Kelly Oubre has played since the All-Star break, the Phoenix Suns' forward has posted solid numbers but not enough to justify his nearly $8,000 price tag on Monday.

His 17.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.2 steals per night in abstract leaves Oubre as one of the more productive Suns players. In fantasy, though, that has translated to 30 or fewer FanDuel points in three of those five games. He is averaging just 32.5 FanDuel points a night since the break, which comes out to only 4.2 FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary, well short of the ideal value of 5.0 per $1,000.

Over the last week, his playing time has taken a bit of a dip too, as he logged just 28.5 minutes per game. If Oubre continues to see fewer minutes in an unfavorable matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, his ceiling gets that much lower.

The Bucks lead the NBA in defensive rating and opponent field goal percentage, making it hard for opponents to rack up FanDuel points. Their opponents have collected the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game on tonight's slate while small forwards specifically amass 0.83 Fanduel points per minute, the lowest rate of the 14 teams playing Monday.

Spencer Dinwiddie, PG, Brooklyn Nets

FanDuel Price: $6,200

As Spencer Dinwiddie works his way back from a prolonged absence, as a result of thumb surgery, the Brooklyn Nets guard will continue to see limited minutes.

Over his last two games -- his first action since late January -- Dinwiddie has played fewer than 25 minutes per game, finishing with an average of 12.5 points, 4.0 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. He ended up with fewer than 22 FanDuel points in both contests, a total that would bring only 3.5 FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary on Monday. The rust on his jump shot was apparent too, as he sank just 2-of-12 field goal attempts on Saturday versus the Miami Heat. Overall in the two games, Dinwiddie is 1-for-9 from three (11.1%).

The matchup with the Dallas Mavericks, while not overtly challenging, is not as easy as one would assume. The Mavs post an above-average defensive rating while holding opponents to the 11th-fewest points per game this season, thanks to them playing at the fourth-slowest pace on tonight’s slate. The Nets-Mavs matchup also carries a low over/under of 226.0, the second-lowest projected total on Monday.

Rudy Gay, SF, San Antonio Spurs

FanDuel Price: $5,900

Over the last three games, Rudy Gay has shifted to a reserve role for the San Antonio Spurs, and the move has dropped his fantasy value.

The forward is seeing just 22.0 minutes a game while posting 18.3 or fewer FanDuel points in two of three games. In those two games, Gay took a total of 14 shots -- and made 5 -- for an average of 8.5 points per game. While he did see an uptick in minutes and production the last time out, the possibility of Gay remaining on the bench reduces his viability in DFS, especially against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets play at the slowest pace of all the teams in action tonight, reducing the point potential for Gay and the Spurs. Also putting a damper on Gay’s outlook is the Nuggets' performance against power forwards, where Gay has spent exactly 50% of his minutes this season. Denver allows just 0.95 FanDuel points per minute to the position, the fourth-lowest rate on Monday’s slate. In the teams' two previous meetings this season, Gay collected 21.1 or fewer points in both contests, making it that much more likely he will flop in fantasy tonight.


Dale Redman is not a FanDuel employee. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.