NBA Playoffs Preview: Analyzing Each First-Round Matchup

Through a full, 82-game season, the NBA certainly allows teams to sort things out for playoff seeding. The best teams tend to make it to the final 16, and we can generally sort the pretenders from the contenders.

That surely doesn't mean that we can always know what to expect on a series-to-series basis. That especially seems true in the Western Conference. Sure, the Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites, but the other three series? Well, our algorithm -- which leverages our nERD metric -- has them all razor thin (especially Portland and Oklahoma City).

Here are the basics you should know about each series from an advanced analytics perspective.

Eastern Conference

(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Detroit Pistons
Head to Head: Milwaukee Leads 4-0

The Bucks swept the regular season series against the Pistons and have been converting wins down the stretch, something the Pistons cant really say -- as they were 4-7 over the final 11. Milwaukee's great play has led to a top-five net rating since the All-Star break, and they actually posted the best nERD rating of any team in basketball on the full season. nERD is predictive of a team's ultimate winning percentage, and Milwaukee (73.4) paced the league with 60 wins. The Pistons just snuck into the playoffs and boast the worst nERD (47.4) of any postseason squad. No matter how you slice it, the Bucks are heavy favorites in this one.

Key Question: Will Blake Griffin be healthy enough to cause problems for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Milwaukee (-6000), Detroit (+1700)
Most Likely Outcome: Milwaukee in 5
Series Favorite: Milwaukee (83.4%)

(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (7) Orlando Magic
Head to Head: Series Tied 2-2

For as good as the Raptors have been since the break, the Magic have been nearly as efficient. As you can see above, both teams are top-10 in both offensive and defensive rating in that split (only six total teams can say that, and only the Bucks can also make the claim in the East). They split the season series, yet the Magic can stake claim to just 33 career postseason starts. The Raps have five players with at least that many.

Key Question: Can Orlando keep pushing the Raptors, or will a well-rested Kawhi Leonard prove too much?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Toronto (-1200), Orlando (+650)
Most Likely Outcome: Toronto in 5
Series Favorite: Toronto (74.7%)

(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
Head to Head: Series Tied 2-2

These two teams have come a long way over the past few seasons. The perennial cellar-dwellers have reversed their fortunes, but only one can advance. Joel Embiid's status will be a key here. He could miss the start of the playoffs, and the team is a full 9.9 points per 100 possessions better with him than without him. Embiid played in all four regular-season games against the Nets, scoring 32 or more points in three of them.

Key Question: This one is obvious -- how healthy is Joel Embiid?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Philadelphia (-650), Brooklyn (+380)
Most Likely Outcome: Philadelphia in 5
Series Favorite: Philadelphia (66.9%)

(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Indiana Pacers
Head to Head: Boston Leads 3-1

This is a weird series, as Boston handled business in three of four regular-season games, but they've largely underachieved all season. And the Pacers -- despite losing Victor Oladipo -- have hung around for the 5 seed. Neither team has a positive net rating since the All-Star break, not something we typically see from playoff teams. The Celtics are reshuffling some things, be it by necessity or not. Marcus Smart is out for at least a month with an oblique injury, and while he didn't have a huge impact on their net rating, he's a key piece to the rotation. Our algorithm has this one going to seven games.

Key Question: Can Indiana take advantage of a team without a key defender and a new starting rotation?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Boston (-480), Indiana (+310)
Most Likely Outcome: Boston in 7
Series Favorite: Boston (58.5%)

Western Conference

(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Los Angeles Clippers
Head to Head: Golden State Leads 3-1

It's really hard to focus on the Clippers when breaking this series down, as Golden State is a juggernaut for at least one more season. No doubt the Clippers can score points at a great rate, but the Warriors led the full-season race with a 114.9 offensive rating. The Warriors are -210 to win the entire Finals, so it's hard to see this one being much other than a gentleman's sweep.

Key Question: Can the Clippers find enough ways to disrupt the Warriors' offense and keep the pressure on?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Golden State (-20000), Los Angeles (+4800)
Most Likely Outcome: Golden State in 5
Series Favorite: Golden State (86.1%)

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
Head to Head: Series Tied 2-2

This one could easily come down to seven games, and there's a pretty good shot that the Spurs take it in six, according to our algorithm. Both squads grade out top-10 in net rating, thanks primarily to great defenses, and they're both bottom-10 in offensive pace on the season. That combination can lead to low-scoring, high-volatility games, making this one a series to prioritize from a viewing standpoint.

Key Question: Can the Spurs slow down Nikola Jokic (16.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists against San Antonio in the regular season)?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Denver (-270), San Antonio (+175)
Most Likely Outcome: Denver in 7
Series Favorite: Denver (52.4%)

(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (6) Oklahoma City Thunder
Head to Head: Oklahoma City Leads 4-0

Another razor-thin series in the West, our algorithm actually sees the most likely outcome as a Thunder win in six games -- but if they can't get it done in OKC in Game 6, the odds swing back too much in Portland's favor. It's insane. The Thunder offense hasn't clicked down the stretch, despite boasting two stars in Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and the Blazers have the best offense since the break, while Damian Lillard averaged 24.7 points. The Thunder average just 13.1 seconds per offensive possession (fastest in basketball) since the unofficial midway point, and the Blazers soak up 15.0 (third-slowest).

Key Question: How does Oklahoma City attack a frontcourt that is missing Jusuf Nurkic?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Oklahoma City (-170), Portland (+110)
Most Likely Outcome: Oklahoma City in 6
Series Favorite: Portland (50.01%)

(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Utah Jazz
Head to Head: Series Tied 2-2

Yet another super close series, this one features the two best teams by net rating since the All-Star break and is a pretty unexpected matchup, given how things shook out for Houston to fall from the 2 seed to the 4 in the dying embers of the regular season. Now, the Rockets have a second-round matchup with Golden State looming -- if they can fend off the surging Jazz. They split the regular-season meetings, while James Harden averaged 33.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 3.0 steals. Houston posted some bleak offensive ratings against the Jazz, but they improved each game: 89.9, 92.9, 97.1, and 114.7. The betting odds favor Houston, but the algorithm has other thoughts.

Key Question: Can the Jazz keep slowing down the Rockets' offense for seven games, or has Houston figured things out?

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Houston (-320), Utah (+210)
Most Likely Outcome: Utah in 6
Series Favorite: Utah (51.1%)