NBA

5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on 12/11/19

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Dec 11th, 2019
Bogdan Bogdanovic can get the scoring going quickly with his outside shot. Should we look at him as a value option on tonight's slate?

One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing in one of these lower-priced options into your lineup.

Let's take a look at five players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, Sacramento Kings ($4,500)

Bogdan Bogdanovic is a player I like to target for upside, and he comes in at a very reasonable price tonight.

At $4.5K tonight, Bogdanovic would need 22.5 FanDuel points -- to be exact -- in order to reach 5x value tonight. Our projections have Bogdanovic going for 25.9 FanDuel points, making him the second-best value play tonight, regardless of position.

Over his last 14 games, Bogdanovic has taken 14 or more field goal attempts in every single game, giving him strong pure-scoring upside. He often fails to fill in the rest of the stat sheet, so the scoring upside is truly where he gets his value. In that same 14 games span, he took five or more three-point attempts in 13 of those 14 games.

Three-pointers can allow him to reach fantasy value quickly, and he shouldn't be highly-owned tonight since this Sacramento Kings versus Oklahoma City Thunder matchup only has an over/under sitting at 209.5 points.

Ersan Ilyasova, PF, Milwaukee Bucks ($3,800)

With Giannis Antetokounmpo being ruled out for tonight's game, value opens up for the Milwaukee Bucks.

While he shouldn't be a starter tonight, Ersan Ilyasova should be in line for more minutes given the tightened rotation of players. With Antetokounmpo out tonight, the Bucks are lacking some size and should turn to Ilyasova -- who is already being productive with his current role. That role sees him come off the bench to play 14-19 minutes per game. That's good, not great, but what is great is his production in many of these games. Ilyasova has produced over one fantasy point per minute in five of his last seven games, exceeding 5x value in four.

We have a player who already has a clear and productive role on the team and is now set for more minutes due to a player ruled out tonight. Sign me up.

J.J. Redick, SG, New Orleans Pelicans ($4,300)

Another player in the New Orleans Pelicans versus Milwaukee Bucks game to keep an eye on tonight is J.J. Redick.

This game has an over/under set at 235 points and is clearly one of the top two games on the slate to target for fantasy production. That is very clear and getting cheaper exposure to higher over/under games allows plenty of upside for your lineups.

Redick isn't a player I look towards too often, but this spot is too good to pass up. Both the Pelicans and the Bucks are in the top-four of fastest-paced teams in the league. Faster paced games have always been a strong indicator of extra fantasy production and tonight is no different. The Bucks are allowing 39.6 FanDuel points per game to shooting guards this season, which is only 1.9 better than the league average.

This season, Redick is carrying a 19.4% usage rate while producing 0.84 FanDuel points per minute. That falls right in line with our project for him playing 27 minutes and posting 22.6 FanDuel points tonight.

Danuel House, SF, Houston Rockets ($4,800)

Danuel House plays a ton of minutes but isn't a big usage player for the Houston Rockets. Can we trust him tonight?

With the current starting lineup for the Rockets, House is holding a 12.2% usage rate, posting 0.85 FanDuel points per minute. This isn't a player you want anywhere near a cash game lineup since his usage is so low, but he is under $5K tonight and is worth taking a shot in tournaments.

He is up against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are allowing 43.1 FanDuel points per game to small forwards this season, the fifth-worst in the league. The over/under is also set at 228.5 points, the third-highest on the slate.

Everything besides his usage would be spots we look for production -- even his 0.85 FanDuel points per minute. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Clint Capela are all ahead of him when it comes to usage, and he is still managing a respectable production rate. A high over/under and a weak defensive opponent are worth attacking tonight.

Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers ($4,300)

Are we in for a bit of a revenge game tonight?

We have Dwight Howard facing off against his former team -- well, one of them -- the Orlando Magic. This is a pace-down spot for the Los Angeles Lakers, but we should still be looking at Howard regardless of the 'revenge' or pace-down. Why? He is simply being productive right now, posting 21 FanDuel points or more in three of his last four games, playing a maximum of 22 minutes in those four games. He is at or above one fantasy point per minute in nearly every game -- right where our projections have him tonight -- and facing a slipping defensive team.

On the season, the Magic are allowing 46.9 FanDuel points per game to centers, which has gone up to 50.2 FanDuel points in the past week. Yes, that's a small sample size, but the Magic still don't have Nikola Vucevic and are struggling to stop opposing big men.