NBA Betting Guide: Saturday 12/26/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls

Under 222.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Chicago Bulls have won just 31.0% of their games over the past three seasons, bettering only the hapless New York Knicks in that span. After a 124-104 drubbing at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks in their opening game of the 2020-21 season, the Bulls don't look like they're close to turning around their underwhelming recent history.

Chicago will have to overcome one of their most troublesome rivals -- the Indiana Pacers -- if they wish to climb to 1-1. Indiana has won nine in a row over Chicago and 12 of the last 13 in the series, and they're not surprisingly 5.0-point favorites tonight for this clash at the United Center. While you'd have a good chance at winning a bet by just putting your money down on Indiana to win or cover (they're 4-0-1 against the spread in their past five against Chicago), our model points to the under as the best bet of the game.

Tonight's 222.5 total is, by far, the highest in the recent history of this series, the previous high being 217.5 in March 2019. Over the past five seasons, the average total has been just 207.7, and the under has still performed well, going 13-7 in that time. Only twice have the two teams combined for at least 223 points in that span, with an average of just 205.3 points scored.

The Bulls have had either the second- or third-worst offensive rating in the league over the past three seasons. The Pacers had the sixth-best defensive rating a year ago and were third the year before that. It's little surprise that we project the Bulls to score just 102.3 points this evening in this tough matchup.

We give the under a 75.8% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $144.70 on a $100 bet, we mark the under as a five-star play, our strongest projected bet on the slate.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz

Jazz Moneyline (-400): 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were trailing for most of their opening game against the Detroit Pistons, but they decided to show up big at the end. Over the last six minutes of the game, the Wolves outscored the Pistons 22-6 to solidify a 111-101 win. Their late-game heroics may not have a chance to materialize when they take on the Utah Jazz tonight.

The Jazz were up by 21 points at the half in their opening game against the Portland Trail Blazers, cruising to a 120-100 win in which they held Damian Lillard to just nine points; that's just the second time in the last four seasons that Dame hasn't scored double digits. Rudy Gobert put up 20 points and 17 boards in the win, something that can't happen if the Wolves hope to walk out of Vivint Smart Home Arena with a win.

The Jazz have won five of the past seven in the series (4-3 against the spread). They're 9.0-point favorites tonight, which may be insurmountable for the Wolves as the Jazz have gone 57-8 as home favorites of more than eight points over the past five seasons. In that time, the Wolves have gone 10-38 as away underdogs of more than eight points. They're just 3-29 in those contests over the past four seasons.

While the potential payout on the moneyline isn't great given that the Jazz are massive favorites tonight, our model has it as one of the best plays of the evening. We give the Jazz an 86.4% chance of walking away with a win and mark the bet as a four-star play. There is some value here as the -400 line implies win odds of only 80.0%.