NBA Betting Guide for 12/29/20: 4 Unders That the Smart Money Likes
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
The four biggest gaps between the betting tickets and the betting money placed are on four unders today (all data coming from oddsFire, of course).
The overall largest discrepancy between betting tickets and money is on the under for the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers. There's 68% of the tickets on the over but only 37% of the money, meaning nearly two-thirds of the money is on the under (217.5) in this one.
numberFire's median point total projection is under that posted total at 215.1, and the game stayed under 217.5 in 55.4% of our algorithm's simulations.
Additionally, both teams are good defensively, ranking top-eight in adjusted defensive rating since the 2019-20 season began.
Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons
This game features the second-biggest differential between tickets and money on the over/under with 30% of the tickets but 54% of the money on the under.
Our algorithm agrees with it, rating the under (226.0) as a four-star bet out of five. In all, the under is 70.7% likely, based on our algorithm, good for an expected return of 35.0%.
The median projected point total in this game is 214.4, well off the pace of the over/under. Early in the season, the Golden State Warriors are 30th in estimated offensive rating (95.0), and the Detroit Pistons are just 24th (103.0).
It seems safe to follow the money on this one.
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a hot 3-0 start behind the ninth-best estimated offensive rating in the NBA -- along with the second-best estimated defensive rating. The New York Knicks are 15th and 19th, respectively.
Our algorithm projects a median score of 213.1 -- about 2.5 points off the over/under mark of 215.5, which has trended down from 217.5. The under is 55.3% likely to hit based on our algorithm. My simulations have it as about a coin flip on that 215.5-point total.
But again, it's about the smart money here: 80% of the betting tickets are on the over, but only 61% of the money is. So, yes, there's still a majority on the over, but a lot points to the under still, especially if you can grab it higher than 215.5 someplace (which you can seek out easily with oddsFire).
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers
Our median projection for this game is a total of only 210.5, so there's a lot of breathing room on the over/under of 218.5 points. This game held under that mark in 65.9% of the algorithm's simulated games.
The offenses are certainly capable, but both teams are top-five in opponent-adjusted defensive rating since the start of 2019-20.
There's a lot of betting action on the over. Via oddsFire, 71% of the betting tickets are on the over, but only 54% of the money is. So there's a majority still on the over, but there's also -- once again -- a noticeable discrepancy between the money and the tickets.
Combining our algorithm's prediction, a good amount of sharp money on the under, and the defensive abilities, the under makes a lot of sense.
