NBA Betting Guide for 1/8/21: 3 Bets the Data and Betting Trends Agree On
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
numberFire's algorithm is a big fan of the Boston Celtics for tonight in their tilt against the visiting Washington Wizards. The Boston moneyline (-245) is rated as a five-star bet out of five, and the spread (Boston -5.5) is a four-star bet out of five.
Actually, the predicted point total here is 122.0 to 109.6, a huge gap between the two teams. Via our algorithm, Boston is 70.4% likely to cover the 5.5-point spread and 86.8% likely to win. Those imply expected returns of 34.4% and 22.9%, respectively.
The betting action over at oddsFire also shows support for Boston. So far, 70% of the tickets and money is on Boston to cover, and there is a little action against it on the moneyline (79% of the tickets but 68% of the money), but it's still heavily favoring the Celtics either way.
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
There's a pretty sizable discrepancy on this game in terms of the tickets and money on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover the 2.0-point spread (as in, the Grizzlies are getting 2.0 points in this one at home). While 21% of the betting tickets are on the Grizzlies to keep it within 2.0, 61% of the money is on Memphis plus the points, the largest differential between tickets and money.
numberFire's algorithm also likes that bet, viewing it 58.0% likely to occur, suggesting a return of 10.7%. The line had been 2.5, so keep an eye out and shop for a line -- which you can do easily at oddsFire!
Without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Spencer Dinwiddie -- all out -- on the floor, the Nets have just a 104.4 offensive rating and allow a defensive rating of 107.8. Unsurprisingly, they're not the same team without their studs.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
The gap between the money (86%) and tickets (51%) on the under (229.5) keeps widening, and the total has fallen from 231 to 230 for this game between the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors, a matchup we saw just two days ago. In that game, the Clippers won 108-101 for a total of just 209 points.
A big reason for the lack of points wasn't quite so much offensive rating (the Clippers were at 112.1 and the Warriors were at 104.9) -- but rather pace (96.3 possessions for each team). The Clippers took up 15.2 seconds per offensive possession, and the Warriors soaked up 14.1 (NBA average this season is 14.1).
So, in addition to the betting trends, numberFire's algorithm agrees: the under is 67.5% likely with an implied return of 28.9%. It's considered a four-star bet out of five.
