Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 1/25/21
Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.
So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.
That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.
And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.
Because these stats don't stabilize that quickly, I'll blend 2019-20 and 2020-21 stats.
Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating
This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.
Teams are sorted by implied team total.
| Team | Opp | Over/ Under |
Spread | Implied Total |
Adj. Offensive Rating |
Rank | Opp Adj. Defensive Rating |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | MIA | 235.5 | -7.5 | 121.50 | 108.4 | 20 | 108.9 | 13 |
| GS | MIN | 227.0 | -8.5 | 117.75 | 100.1 | 30 | 110.8 | 20 |
| BOS | CHI | 228.5 | -5.0 | 116.75 | 114.4 | 8 | 108.9 | 12 |
| POR | OKC | 223.5 | -5.5 | 114.50 | 114.5 | 6 | 108.4 | 9 |
| MIA | BKN | 235.5 | 7.5 | 114.0 | 114.4 | 7 | 109.6 | 15 |
| NO | SA | 225.0 | -2.5 | 113.75 | 109.1 | 18 | 110.5 | 18 |
| DEN | DAL | 222.5 | -1.5 | 112.0 | 115.6 | 3 | 111.3 | 21 |
| LAL | CLE | 213.0 | -10.5 | 111.75 | 114.3 | 9 | 113.2 | 28 |
| CHI | BOS | 228.5 | 5.0 | 111.75 | 103.8 | 24 | 106.7 | 4 |
| PHI | DET | 216.5 | -6.0 | 111.25 | 111.8 | 12 | 112.3 | 25 |
| SA | NO | 225.0 | 2.5 | 111.25 | 113.0 | 11 | 111.6 | 23 |
| DAL | DEN | 222.5 | 1.5 | 110.50 | 119.3 | 1 | 111.5 | 22 |
| IND | TOR | 217.5 | -2.5 | 110.0 | 109.5 | 17 | 104.5 | 2 |
| MIN | GS | 227.0 | 8.5 | 109.25 | 103.1 | 26 | 112.3 | 26 |
| OKC | POR | 223.5 | 5.5 | 109.0 | 108.5 | 19 | 113.7 | 29 |
| TOR | IND | 217.5 | 2.5 | 107.50 | 111.4 | 13 | 107.6 | 5 |
| CHA | ORL | 213.5 | -1.0 | 107.25 | 102.5 | 27 | 108.0 | 8 |
| ORL | CHA | 213.5 | 1.0 | 106.25 | 104.8 | 23 | 112.1 | 24 |
| DET | PHI | 216.5 | 6.0 | 105.25 | 105.8 | 22 | 107.9 | 7 |
| CLE | LAL | 213.0 | 10.5 | 101.25 | 102.4 | 28 | 105.8 | 3 |
Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points
This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.
Teams are sorted by fastest adjusted pace. Remember, these still bake in 2019-20 stats.
| Team | Opp | Adj. Pace |
Rank | Opp Adj. Pace |
Rank | Expected Pace |
Expected Offensive Rating |
Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | SA | 104.0 | 3 | 100.6 | 16 | 103.9 | 110.1 | 114.3 |
| MIN | GS | 103.7 | 5 | 101.6 | 10 | 104.5 | 108.9 | 113.9 |
| BKN | MIA | 102.7 | 8 | 98.3 | 28 | 100.2 | 108.2 | 108.5 |
| POR | OKC | 101.8 | 9 | 99.2 | 23 | 100.3 | 110.7 | 111.0 |
| GS | MIN | 101.6 | 10 | 103.7 | 5 | 104.5 | 105.9 | 110.6 |
| TOR | IND | 101.1 | 11 | 99.6 | 20 | 99.9 | 108.4 | 108.4 |
| CHI | BOS | 101.0 | 12 | 99.8 | 19 | 100.1 | 103.7 | 103.7 |
| LAL | CLE | 100.6 | 15 | 99.5 | 21 | 99.4 | 115.5 | 114.9 |
| SA | NO | 100.6 | 16 | 104.0 | 3 | 103.8 | 113.2 | 117.5 |
| DAL | DEN | 100.2 | 17 | 97.5 | 29 | 96.9 | 116.4 | 112.7 |
| PHI | DET | 99.9 | 18 | 98.4 | 27 | 97.6 | 113.3 | 110.5 |
| BOS | CHI | 99.8 | 19 | 101.0 | 12 | 100.1 | 111.2 | 111.3 |
| IND | TOR | 99.6 | 20 | 101.1 | 11 | 99.9 | 104.3 | 104.3 |
| CLE | LAL | 99.5 | 21 | 100.6 | 15 | 99.4 | 102.0 | 101.4 |
| OKC | POR | 99.2 | 23 | 101.8 | 9 | 100.2 | 113.0 | 113.3 |
| ORL | CHA | 99.0 | 25 | 96.8 | 30 | 95.0 | 109.6 | 104.1 |
| DET | PHI | 98.4 | 27 | 99.9 | 18 | 97.5 | 105.9 | 103.3 |
| MIA | BKN | 98.3 | 28 | 102.7 | 8 | 100.2 | 112.0 | 112.2 |
| DEN | DAL | 97.5 | 29 | 100.2 | 17 | 96.9 | 114.3 | 110.7 |
| CHA | ORL | 96.8 | 30 | 99.0 | 25 | 95.0 | 104.3 | 99.1 |
Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position
This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).
The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.
Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.
| Offense | Defense | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | MIA | 0.91 (4) | 0.86 (10) | 0.86 (12) | 0.92 (7) | 1.02 (5) |
| BOS | CHI | 0.89 (3) | 0.87 (13) | 0.87 (16) | 1.05 (29) | 1.16 (24) |
| CHA | ORL | 0.95 (16) | 0.88 (18) | 0.88 (20) | 0.98 (21) | 0.97 (1) |
| CHI | BOS | 0.88 (1) | 0.85 (7) | 0.80 (2) | 0.94 (12) | 1.1 (11) |
| CLE | LAL | 0.95 (14) | 0.86 (8) | 0.81 (3) | 0.86 (1) | 0.98 (2) |
| DAL | DEN | 0.92 (8) | 0.85 (6) | 0.87 (18) | 0.87 (2) | 1.04 (6) |
| DEN | DAL | 0.88 (2) | 0.86 (11) | 0.93 (28) | 0.96 (14) | 1.09 (10) |
| DET | PHI | 0.92 (11) | 0.85 (4) | 0.84 (10) | 0.92 (6) | 0.99 (3) |
| GS | MIN | 1.01 (28) | 0.91 (26) | 0.89 (22) | 0.99 (24) | 1.18 (27) |
| IND | TOR | 0.93 (13) | 0.87 (15) | 0.88 (19) | 0.96 (15) | 1.02 (4) |
| LAL | CLE | 1.03 (30) | 0.90 (23) | 0.94 (29) | 0.98 (19) | 1.11 (18) |
| MIA | BKN | 0.96 (17) | 0.88 (19) | 0.87 (14) | 0.98 (18) | 1.19 (28) |
| MIN | GS | 0.97 (22) | 0.93 (29) | 0.89 (23) | 1.00 (25) | 1.15 (21) |
| NO | SA | 0.99 (26) | 0.84 (3) | 0.90 (25) | 0.99 (22) | 1.07 (8) |
| OKC | POR | 0.97 (23) | 0.89 (21) | 0.87 (17) | 1.07 (30) | 1.11 (14) |
| ORL | CHA | 0.92 (6) | 0.88 (20) | 0.88 (21) | 1.03 (28) | 1.19 (29) |
| PHI | DET | 0.96 (19) | 0.86 (12) | 0.82 (5) | 1.02 (26) | 1.15 (23) |
| POR | OKC | 0.92 (9) | 0.87 (17) | 0.83 (8) | 0.91 (5) | 1.06 (7) |
| SA | NO | 0.99 (25) | 0.92 (28) | 0.90 (26) | 0.97 (16) | 1.11 (17) |
| TOR | IND | 0.92 (10) | 0.83 (2) | 0.83 (6) | 0.93 (9) | 1.15 (22) |
