FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 1/28/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's loaded four-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Key Studs: Even on a four-game slate, there are a couple of key studs at point guard. First, we have Damian Lillard ($9,700). In the seven games C.J. McCollum has missed over the last two seasons, Dame has averaged 57.2 FanDuel points per contest. Tonight, Lillard will face a Houston Rockets team that's allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season, according to numberFire's DvP tool. We can also look to Chris Paul ($7,400) as a core stud, but there's an asterisk there -- Paul is a lock only if Devin Booker (questionable with a hamstring) misses another game. In his last two games, both without Booker in the lineup, Paul has managed 55.3 and 44.5 fantasy points -- in fact, those are two of his only three 40-plus fantasy-point performances this season.

Core Plays and Value Options: Lillard is certainly a core play for me, and Paul is pretty damn close to it if Booker doesn't suit up. However, we also have one salary-saving option who could be a truly elite play, and that's Reggie Jackson ($5,000). With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverley out on Tuesday, Jackson racked up a whopping 47.4 FanDuel points in 39.2 minutes of action. The Miami Heat are ceding the 11th-most fantasy points to the position, and it's not a stretch to say that Jackson could wind up as the best overall value on tonight's slate when it's all said and done. For a minimum salary, you can also look to Anfernee Simons ($3,500), who has recorded 20.6 and 31.9 fantasy points in his last two games.

Shooting Guard

Core Plays and Value Options: Terance Mann ($4,500) has played more than 25 minutes twice for the Los Angeles Clippers, and he amassed 31.3 and 34.3 FanDuel points in those contests. Mann dropped the 34.3 in 34 minutes for the shorthanded Clippers on Tuesday, and there's no reason for his role to shrink tonight. Mann's teammate, Luke Kennard ($5,500), is also worthy of consideration. Kennard put up 31.6 fantasy points on the back of four steals on Tuesday. He should have a large role in this matchup. Finally, our model's top-projected value at the position in Damion Lee ($3,500). Lee has seen an uptick in production in his last two games, notching 19.8 and 28.4 FanDuel points in them. He would only need 17.5 to return a value figure of 5.0.

Stud to Consider: The Portland Trail Blazers have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season, which brings Victor Oladipo ($8,300) into play. 'Dipo has only recorded 23.9 and 24.5 fantasy points in his last two, making his high salary a tough pill to swallow, but he did play 35.5 and 37.0 minutes in those two outings, which is encouraging. Shooting guard is probably the thinnest position on the slate, so completely ignoring Oladipo simply isn't an option.

Small Forward

Core Plays and Value Options: In the last three games without McCollum in the lineup, Carmelo Anthony ($5,200) has racked up 28.6, 27.3, and 39.7 FanDuel points. Melo needs just 26 fantasy points to achieve our baseline value, so he's a definite core play. Our model's top value at the position is Mikal Bridges ($5,500). Bridges is facing a Golden State Warriors team that ranks sixth-worst against small forwards when adjusted for competition. Bridges has seen more than 30 minutes of action in all but three games this season, and he's had six games in which he's eclipsed 30 FanDuel points with ease. Finally, Precious Achiuwa ($3,500) is fresh off a 35.7 FanDuel-point performance last night, and he has exceeded 24 fantasy points in each of his three games with more than 20 minutes of action. While that outing was largely the benefit of a blowout, he's still worth a dart throw in tournaments at the minimum salary.

Studs to Consider: LeBron James ($10,700) could be a popular play tonight, but fading him might be the right choice, especially in tournaments. LeBron played 38.5 minutes last night, and with the Los Angeles Lakers favored by 10.0 tonight, he could see a lighter workload should they pull ahead early. Additionally, King James would need 53.5 FanDuel points just to accrue a 5.0 value figure, and that's a number he's reached just four times this season. On the other side, Jerami Grant ($8,400) has underwhelmed in three of his last four, which could drive down his rostership. Grant has racked up at least 41.8 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 12 outings.
(Update: LeBron is a better play now that Anthony Davis has been ruled out.)

Other option: While he doesn't fit under the "stud" category, Kelly Oubre ($6,300) is worth some exposure. Oubre has managed 32.8 or more fantasy points in four of his last six games, and he would need 31.5 for our baseline value. It's worth noting that his matchup is anything but easy.

Power Forward

Key Stud: The Detroit Pistons have ceded the most fantasy points to power forwards this season -- hello, Anthony Davis ($10,200). AD saw a slightly lighter workload than LeBron last night, and if he's a go tonight, he should be able to take advantage in this titillating matchup. Davis has accrued at least 50 fantasy points in three of his last five.
(Update: Davis has been ruled out. Kyle Kuzma ($3,900) becomes a viable option.)

Other options: Prior to missing the last three games due to injury, Christian Wood ($9,500) has averaged 49 FanDuel points over his last four outings. Houston was shorthanded for each of those games, so that's worth keeping in mind. You could certainly save $300 and roster Bam Adebayo ($9,200) instead. Bam dudded for just 29.4 FanDuel points in last night's blowout, though he did post 62.5 and 45.5 in the two games prior. Given that all of the Clippers' stars will be out, Adebayo could be leaned on heavily in what should be a very winnable game for Miami.

Core Plays and Value Options: In his last two games without Booker, Jae Crowder ($5,200) has posted 34.9 and 34.4 fantasy points. If Booker sits again, Crowder would be a core play at power forward. Our model's top-projected value at the position is Blake Griffin ($5,500). Blake isn't the player he once was (or anything close to it), but he has exceeded 33 fantasy points four times in 2020-21 -- the upside is there. The Clippers have two power forwards worth considering, though Marcus Morris ($4,800) has a salary with much more room for value than Serge Ibaka ($6,200). Morris is numberFire's third-best projected value at the position.

Center

Core Plays: Depending on much salary you have remaining, you can look to either Deandre Ayton ($8,300) or Enes Kanter ($6,500). Ayton's got a lineup-killing floor, but across his last five games, he's had outputs of 41.7, 63.9, and 47.1. Tonight, he'll square off against a Warriors' interior defense that's surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to centers this season. Meanwhile, Kanter gets an even better matchup, as Houston is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to centers this campaign. Kanter has had performances of 55.5 and 49.9 in two of the four games since Jusuf Nurkic went down.

Other option: numberFire's top-projected value at center is Mason Plumlee ($5,200). However, given that the Lakers are a top-10 defense against opposing centers, I'm a bit more skeptical about Plumlee's prospects tonight. With AD out, Marc Gasol ($3,600) is now in play.