NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/28/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
John Wall Under 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-108)
This is a good chance to bet on John Wall after his breakout performance against his former Washington Wizards squad. Facing the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, it is a favorable matchup to hit his overs, but with Christian Wood back in the lineup with DeMarcus Cousins playing well, it seems like a solid time to fade Wall. Wall has faced a minute restriction, and he played 21 and 24 minutes in his last two games after playing 30 or more in six of seven games.
Our model projects Wall to total 19.3 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.1 rebounds (29.9 combined) versus Portland, which is just over the posted total.
However, Wall scored fewer than 20 points in four straight games before his 24 points versus Washington. Wall has only recorded more than three rebounds in one of his last five and more than five assists in one during that span. With all the moving pieces back for Houston Rockets and Wall's minutes being restricted, back him to go under his total.
Reggie Jackson Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-104)
With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George out of the lineup, look no further than Reggie Jackson. He scored 14 and 20 points in his last two games in addition to dishing out 8 assists and 7 rebounds in his previous game.
It appears Jackson will be the main contributor in this offense without the Clippers' duo and betting on him to be the Los Angeles Clippers leading scorer seems solid. He played 39 minutes in the first game without them and led the team in points (20) and assists (8). He attempted 16 shots, making 8 (50%), in addition to 6 three-pointers versus the Hawks.
Our model predicts Jackson to hit 14.5 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.4 rebounds (23.8 combined), but that is only based on 28 minutes. It's easy to see how he can get to 30-plus minutes of action, and versus the Miami Heat, Jackson should post another stellar performance. Miami allows the 4th-most rebounds per game to point guards (7.37) and the 13th-most assists (8.50). The Heat rank first in points per game to point guards (19.39) but someone has to score for the Clippers, and Jackson is the front-runner.
Mason Plumlee Over 7.5 Rebounds (-118)
Mason Plumlee has quietly been grabbing rebounds at an impressive rate. He's had 10 and 12 over his last two games but also totaled 9 in two more over his last five. That's four overs in his previous five games. The Los Angeles Lakers are without Anthony Davis tonight, and that brightens up Plumlee's line, as Montrezl Harrell did not play much in this last game. The Detroit Pistons are at home, and when Plumlee is there, he has averaged 9.5 boards per game.
Plumlee has gone over this total in 13-of-18 games this season, and when he plays 30 or more minutes, the big man averages 9.8 rebounds in four of six games. When he plays between 25 and 29 minutes, his numbers are still solid at 8.4 per game. Our model projects Plumlee to grab 7.9 rebounds tonight, giving good value on this prop.
