NBA Odds Update: The Clippers Are a Worthy Bet
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong starts and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at the three teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 12.4%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 9.4%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +600
If you exclude the two games in which both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George didn't play due to COVID-19 protocols, the Los Angeles Clippers have won nine in a row.
To date, the Clippers are tied with their neighboring Los Angeles Lakers for the best net rating in the NBA, and they also currently possess the best win percentage in the Association.
While the Clips' 6/1 odds carry a 14.3% implied probability, they did get a 3% bump in our model's title odds over the last week, and they're trending towards being a decent value bet. It might be a good idea to get in before their odds begin to shrink.
Utah Jazz
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 7.1%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 4.8%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1800
This is the third consecutive week that the Utah Jazz find themselves in this column, as numberFire's algorithm continues to be more and more bullish about their chances.
Since falling to 1.8% three weeks ago, our models have upped Utah's title probability all the way to 7.1%.
The Jazz are currently behind only the Clippers in win percentage, and their net rating of 7.2 is just 0.6 points behind the league's top two teams (the lakers and Clippers). Despite that, we see over at oddsFire that you can place a championship bet on the Jazz at 33/1 odds -- that's an implied total of 2.9%. A wager on the Jazz could return fantastic value should they continue to play at this level.
Dallas Mavericks
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 1.2%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 2.9%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +2200
Somehow, the friendliest odds for a Dallas Mavericks title bet is 28/1, per oddsFire. Remember, as I just mentioned, you can get Utah at 33/1.
The Mavs have lost 8 of their last 10, with 5 of those losses coming by double-digits. Dallas now has the 11th-worst net rating in the league, and they're also bottom-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency through 20 games.
Dallas' 3.5% implied odds (again, that's their best price) are a far cry from our model's 1.2% probability. I'd rather spend elsewhere.
