NBA Betting Guide for 2/5/21: Can the Heat Avenge Their Loss to the Wizards?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets
I think we're set for some pretty steady under recommendations for the Brooklyn Nets' totals for a while. They're just so high. This one had an opening total of 243.0 points, and it's since dropped 3 points to 240.0.
oddsFire shows us that this is in spite of the fact that 54% of the betting tickets have been placed on the over. What's driving the under, then, is that 59% of the money is getting placed on the under, so there's some sharp money coming in on that side.
numberFire's algorithm views the under as a five-star recommendation (out of five) and sees this game playing to a median total of 227.7 points. Even if I flip my model to use solely this season's opponent-adjusted data, the expected total is 239.0 points. So we're getting close to that number as the total is coming down, but the under still seems like the preference.
Of the 25 most comparable games to this one historically, only 1 hit the over (and another pushed). That means 23 of the 25 failed to hit their posted over. Keep an eye on where the line goes from here.
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
These two teams are off to sluggish starts this season. The Washington Wizards are just 5-13, and the Miami Heat are 7-14. They're both bottom-eight in our power rankings (Washington is 23rd, and the Heat are 26th). The Wizards' fifth win, however, came on Wednesday against these Heat, a 103-100 victory. That was without Russell Westbrook. The Heat won 128-124 on January 9th.
Anyway, based on an ELO-based adjusted point differential metric I run, the Heat (-5.26) are marginally better this season than the Wizards (-6.05). In terms of opponent-adjusted net rating, I also have the Heat around 4.0 points per 100 possessions better than the Wizards. In total, my model prefers the Heat by 8.6 points, better than their spread of -6.5.
My model indicates the Heat should win this game around 77.0% of the time, and numberFire's algorithm has it at 77.9%. Those odds mean the Heat moneyline should be around -344, but it's actually just -260 (suggesting they're around 72.2% likely to win).
Additionally, there's some sharp action on the Heat moneyline: 62% of the bets but 75% of the money is coming in on the Heat to win outright and avenge their loss on Wednesday.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Our model is getting all excited for the Oklahoma City Thunder's chances against the Minnesota Timberwolves. It's viewing the Thunder +1.0 and the Thunder moneyline (-102) as five-star recommendations.
The Thunder +1.0 is 77.2% likely (suggesting a 47.5% return), and the Thunder (-102) to win outright is 81.5% likely (suggesting a 61.3% return).
numberFire's power rankings have the Thunder just 27th in the NBA -- but the Timberwolves are 30th. My ELO ratings have the Thunder a -6.09 in adjusted point differential (26th), and the Timberwolves are a -8.40 (30th).
Even though the Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, D'Angelo Russell is questionable to suit up.The betting trends are also backing the Thunder, and more than 60% of the bets and money are on the Thunder moneyline and the point spread.
