3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 2/5/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.

Friday's main slate is a large nine games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the chalk plays of the night. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

Norman Powell ($6,400) - Once again we see a game featuring the Brooklyn Nets with a massive implied total -- this time at 242.5 in their matchup against the Toronto Raptors.

While there are no shortage of superstars to roster from this game, players like Powell make for strong tournament pivots when others are rostering a more chalky James Harden ($11,000) or Hamidou Diallo ($5,000).

Powell has been playing out of his mind with OG Anunoby out of the lineup due to injury. He's averaged 40 FanDuel points per game in his last three contests and has outproduced his seasonal numbers more than any other player over the last five games, scoring 62% more FanDuel points per game (36.5 compared to 22.4).

In a game that features players named Durant, Harden, Irving, Siakam, and VanVleet (coming off a 78-FanDuel-point explosion), it will be easy to overlook the ancillary pieces in this one. But Powell has carved out a role for himself in the offense, with five straight games with at least 20 points, and he's averaging the highest usage rate and player efficiency rating of his career.

Forward

Jimmy Butler ($8,500) - There will continue to be major traction towards Kevin Durant at the small forward position as long as the Nets are scoring and allowing over 130 points per night. But I hope there are enough people rostering Durant to keep the percentage low on Jimmy Butler because he is my stone cold lock conviction play tonight.

Butler is just simply amazing. After missing 10 games due to COVID health protocols, he has blown the doors off his opponents in his three games back, averaging 36 minutes and over 49 FanDuel points while showing no signs of rust.

What did FanDuel decide to do with this three-game sample and a matchup against the lowly Washington Wizards? They slightly lowered his salary to the point where you must have some Butler exposure.

The Wizards are simply atrocious against small forwards, allowing the second-most actual points and sixth-most FanDuel points to the position this year. Combine that with the fact that the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league and have the second-worst defensive rating this year, and this could easily be a 60-FanDuel-point game for Butler if the Wizards at all keep it close.

I was slightly surprised to see the Heat as only 6.5-point favorites tonight at home, but that just provides more evidence that this is a spot to jam in Jimmy as much as you can.

Center

Thaddeus Young ($6,600) - Young is not starting for the Chicago Bulls these days, nor is he actually a center, but considering the stats he has been producing, I'll take a piece of Young any way I can get it.

Playing major minutes since the Bulls lost Wendell Carter Jr. to an injury, Young is working on a four-game stretch of at least 40 FanDuel points per game. Per numberFire's metrics, he is outproducing his seasonal FanDuel production by 39% over his last five games, and it is directly correlated to the run he is getting from the Bulls.

Before January 25th, Young had two games all season where he played at least 28 minutes. He now has reached that threshold in three of his last four games and has also been just shy of a triple-double in those same three games. In addition to points and rebounds, Young also helps your DFS lineup in non-traditional center stats such as assists (7.5 per game over his last four) and steals (2.2 per game in his last five).

Since he isn't starting and lives in the salary mid-range, hopefully his roster percentage remains low. He was rostered in only 11% of lineups on February 3, and with the masses likely flocking to a chalky Nikola Vucevic, Young may once again fly under the radar.