FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 2/8/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's eight-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.
Slate Overview
Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.
Teams are sorted by implied team total.
| Team | Opp | Over/ Under |
Spread | Implied Total |
Adj. Offensive Rating |
Rank | Opp Adj. Defensive Rating |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | WSH | 236.0 | -2.5 | 119.25 | 115.6 | 12 | 124.8 | 30 |
| MIL | DEN | 230.0 | -4.5 | 117.25 | 129.5 | 1 | 118.0 | 26 |
| SA | GS | 233.0 | -1.5 | 117.25 | 112.5 | 18 | 109.3 | 7 |
| DAL | MIN | 224.5 | -9.5 | 117.0 | 114.8 | 14 | 117.6 | 23 |
| WSH | CHI | 236.0 | 2.5 | 116.75 | 108.0 | 22 | 117.6 | 24 |
| GS | SA | 233.0 | 1.5 | 115.75 | 111.7 | 19 | 115.1 | 17 |
| TOR | MEM | 224.5 | -3.0 | 113.75 | 116.3 | 9 | 110.1 | 9 |
| LAL | OKC | 216.0 | -11.0 | 113.50 | 117.5 | 7 | 115.3 | 19 |
| DEN | MIL | 230.0 | 4.5 | 112.75 | 122.0 | 5 | 109.9 | 8 |
| HOU | CHA | 222.0 | -3.0 | 112.50 | 103.2 | 27 | 115.2 | 18 |
| PHX | CLE | 215.5 | -7.5 | 111.50 | 112.7 | 17 | 110.7 | 11 |
| MEM | TOR | 224.5 | 3.0 | 110.75 | 108.8 | 21 | 114.6 | 16 |
| CHA | HOU | 222.0 | 3.0 | 109.50 | 111.4 | 20 | 103.8 | 3 |
| MIN | DAL | 224.5 | 9.5 | 107.50 | 100.3 | 30 | 115.4 | 20 |
| CLE | PHX | 215.5 | 7.5 | 104.0 | 102.6 | 28 | 108.2 | 6 |
| OKC | LAL | 216.0 | 11.0 | 102.50 | 105.7 | 24 | 103.0 | 1 |
Point Guard
Studs to Target: No matter which salary tier you choose to attack at point guard tonight, you're not going to run into a shortage of options. At the top, both Luka Doncic ($11,400) and Stephen Curry ($10,100) have mouth-watering matchups. Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank 28th against point guards this season, according to numberFire's DvP tool. In six matchups against teams that are bottom-eight against the point this season, Doncic has averaged 68.9 FanDuel points per game. Meanwhile, Curry and the Golden State Warriors will travel to Texas to take on the San Antonio Spurs, who are surrendering the second-most fantasy points to the position. Steph has equaled or surpassed 48.7 fantasy points in six of his eight games against bottom-eight teams.
Top Value Plays: One of our model's top-projected value plays is Coby White ($5,600). The Chicago Bulls will likely be without Otto Porter, Lauri Markkanen, and Wendell Carter Jr. tonight, and according to RotoGrinders, White sees a 3.4% usage bump while averaging an additional 0.13 FanDuel points per minute without those three on the court this season. In the eight games Markkanen has missed this season, White has eclipsed 33 fantasy points five times. Our model actually has Tomas Satoransky ($3,800) producing better value than White, albeit at a lower ceiling. Satoransky produced season-highs in fantasy points (33) and minutes (27) on Saturday without Markkanen in the lineup.
Lonnie Walker will be inactive tonight for the Spurs, which has led to our model projecting Patty Mills ($3,800) to be the best value at the position. numberFire's algorithm sees Mills posting 22.7 FanDuel points at a salary under $4,000. If Jamal Murray (knee) can't suit up tonight, Monte Morris ($4,200) will once again be in a position to produce fantastic value. Morris recorded 28.5 FanDuel points on Saturday without Murray in the lineup.
Honorable Mentions: The Oklahoma City Thunder will be without George Hill and Theo Maledon tonight, which means that Hamidou Diallo ($6,200) is still in play. LaMelo Ball ($7,800) and John Wall ($7,400) are squaring off against each other, and our model has both players returning value figures better than 4.9. Finally, with Anthony Davis unlikely to play, Dennis Schroder ($5,400) is one of a number of players who stands to benefit.
Shooting Guard
Key Stud: This season, with the aforementioned three players off the court for the Bulls, Zach LaVine ($8,800) has seen increases of 7.1% in usage and 0.28 in FanDuel points per minute. That will be huge against a Washington Wizards team that ranks second-worst in defensive efficiency. In three games with Markkanen and Porter out (Porter did play six minutes in one of them before exiting), LaVine has dropped 59.0, 58.9, and 51.4 FanDuel points. Given that Chicago has the highest implied total on the entire slate, LaVine is a core stud to target tonight.
Top Value Plays: The Memphis Grizzlies will be without De'Anthony Melton and Brandon Clarke for tonight's bout with the Toronto Raptors, and Dillon Brooks ($4,700) averages an additional 0.13 FanDuel points per minute when those two are not on the court. Brooks would need 23.5 fantasy points to accrue our baseline value figure tonight, and he has reached that number in 12 of his 18 games this season. numberFire's model projects Brooks to be the fourth-best value at the position.
At a minimum salary, our model sees Isaac Okoro ($3,500) as well worth the dart throw. Okoro hasn't played fewer than 27.6 minutes in any game this season, and he has managed at least 19.8 FanDuel points in four of his last eight. Our model has the rookie as the top-projected value at the position.
numberFire's algorithm is also high on Donte DiVincenzo ($4,300). Donte is averaging 25.1 FanDuel points over his last four, and he'd only need 21.5 for 5X. He's facing a Denver Nuggets team that's allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Honorable Mentions: Bradley Beal ($10,800) would be a stud to target if Russell Westbrook doesn't go tonight. Josh Richardson ($4,700) has topped 30 minutes in five straight, and that could be enough to make his salary pay off in a soft matchup against the Wolves.
Small Forward
Key Stud: With Anthony Davis likely inactive, LeBron James ($10,800) is a player to target against an OKC team that ranks dead last against small forwards this season. LeBron has posted 55 and 60.5 FanDuel points in his last two, respectively, and he should be able to keep that hot streak going tonight. James does see meager bumps in both usage and fantasy production with AD off the court this season.
Top Value Plays: Denzel Valentine ($4,400) has put up 30.7, 26.3, and 32.6 fantasy points over his last three, and that's unlikely to slow down with Markkanen and Porter out. You'll want as much exposure to Chicago's slate-high 119.3 implied total as you can, and Valentine is an excellent way to get there. He's our model's fifth-best projected value at the position. Our model is also high on Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,700). At his salary, Finney-Smith would only need 18.5 FanDuel points to achieve our baseline value, and he's reached or exceeded that number in three of his last five games. He's our algorithm's second-best projected value at small forward.
Sandwiching Finney-Smith in our model's top-projected values at the position are Rudy Gay ($4,000) and Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200). Gay saw 25.2 minutes on Saturday without LaMarcus Aldridge, and he should continue to have a big role as long as the big man is out. numberFire has him recording 24.6 fantasy points tonight, making him the top-projected value at small forward. Meanwhile, MPJ will face a Milwaukee team that's allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Porter Jr. should see plenty of volume with Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier still out for Denver.
Finally, Kyle Anderson ($5,700) has a 23.4% usage rate while averaging 1.15 FanDuel points per minute with Melton and Clarke off the court this season. Anderson, who needs 28.5 fantasy points for a 5.0 value figure, has topped 29.5 in six of his last nine.
Honorable Mentions: After not playing more than 27.5 minutes in six straight, Kelly Oubre ($6,700) has been on the court for 36.2 and 32.7 minutes in his last two outings. Both he and Juan Toscano-Anderson ($5,300) are worthy of consideration with Golden State's frontcourt decimated by injuries.
Power Forward
Key Stud: In 12 road games, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) has eclipsed 56 FanDuel points 8 times, and that includes 5 outings with at least 63.9. Denver has been quite tough on power forwards this season, but they were also a tough defense last season when Giannis dropped 70.7 FanDuel points on them. The two-time MVP has now produced at least 62 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, and he should be able to keep it rolling tonight.
Top Value Plays: Kyle Kuzma ($4,900) has amassed 36 and 36.1 fantasy points in two of the three games Anthony Davis has missed this season, and he averaged 30.2 FanDuel points in six games without AD active last season. He's an elite value play if Davis is indeed out tonight.
Patrick Williams ($4,500) is our model's top-projected value at power forward. Williams has seen at least 32.2 minutes of action in each of his last three, and he's recorded 22.9, 37.9, and 30.5 FanDuel points in those outings, respectively. He should have no trouble returning value against Washington's "defense" tonight.
After Williams, our model's next-best projected value is Maxi Kleber ($4,200). Kleber has earned more than 32 minutes of playing time in two of his last three efforts, and he's had 24.5 and 31.6 FanDuel points to show for it. Tonight, he'll face a Minnesota team that struggles mightily to defend the interior.
Mid-Range Star: Chris Boucher ($5,900) has had a maddeningly inconsistent season, both in playing time and production, but his upside is as high as it gets for a player with a salary under $6,000. Boucher has amassed 33.8 and 47.5 fantasy points in his last two, and he's now recorded 33.8-plus on 10 different occasions this season. A matchup against a Memphis team down Brandon Clarke is certainly one we can look to target.
Honorable Mentions: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100) is the only power forward with a salary above $6,200 that our model has projected for a value figure better than 5.0. Aside from Williams, Kleber, and Porzingis, the only power forwards numberFire projects to return better than 5.1X value are Davis Bertans ($4,300) and Jaden McDaniels ($3,500).
Center
Core Play: DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) is our model's top-projected value on the entire slate. In five games Christian Wood has missed this season, Cousins has erupted for 34.2, 34.5, 44.3, 51.2, and 51.9 fantasy points. This season, the Charlotte Hornets are ceding the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
What About Nikola Jokic ($11,600)?: Jokic has had outings of 74.9 and 88.6 fantasy points in his last three games -- so there's no way you can just ignore him. On the season, the Serbian has topped 60 FanDuel 11 times. The Bucks' interior defense isn't what it was last season, as the "only" rank 11th-best against centers after being top-three for the entirety of the 2019-20 season. Some exposure to Jokic is definitely recommended.
Honorable Mention: Montrezl Harrell ($5,200) is squaring off against an OKC team that ranks 25th against centers for a Lakers squad that will likely be sans Anthony Davis.
