NBA Odds Update: Fade the Nuggets
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong starts and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at the three teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Milwaukee Bucks
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 26.4%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 19.2%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +700
The Milwaukee Bucks have had an uneven start to their 2020-21 campaign. Their play has been so inconsistent to start the season that their numberFire title odds have either risen or dropped by at least 1.5% each week since the season began.
The Deer started the season by losing two of their first three, including a 20-point defeat at the hand of the New York Knicks. They followed that up by winning seven of their next eight, dropping four out of six, and, finally, the current four-game win streak that they're riding.
To date, Milwaukee has the league's best offensive and net rating, the latter of which is 1.6 points higher than any other team in the Association, according to NBA.com. As such, the Bucks' championship probability, per our models, has risen from 19.2% last week to 26.4% this week.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, you can currently place a bet on the Bucks to win it all at a price of 7/1 (down from 6/1 five weeks ago), which carries 12.5% implied odds -- our model's 26.5% probability is more than double that. With Milwaukee's odds falling, this seems like a great time to make that bet.
Denver Nuggets
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 2.3%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 4.1%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +2700
The Denver Nuggets have lost three of their last four, which hasn't helped how they're viewed in the eyes of our algorithm.
Per numberFire, Denver's championship probability has fallen from 4.1% last week to 2.3% today. The Nuggets still rank sixth in net rating, but they're 11th-worst in defensive efficiency -- that's not a recipe for success come playoff time.
FanDuel Sportsbook's 27/1 odds for a Denver Finals win means they have a 3.6% implied probability to do so -- that doesn't add up with our model, which has them at 2.3%.
Brooklyn Nets
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 8.0%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 11.1%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +440
While Denver might be scuffling defensively, the Brooklyn Nets are straight up shi...pooping the bed on that side of the court.
Since Brooklyn traded for James Harden, only the Dallas Mavericks rank worse in defensive efficiency, and not by much. In fact, during that 12-game stretch, the Nets are surrendering an eye-popping 124 points per game. Yes, they also rank second-best in offensive efficiency, but it's going to be damn hard to win a title with a historically awful defense.
A wager here is unlikely to prove too fruitful, especially given the fact that you'd have to pay a premium to bet on a Nets' Finals victory -- at oddsFire, we see that the lowest odds are 7/1.
